Most sub-Saharan countries - notably SA and Nigeria - will not achieve the International Telecommunication Union's (ITU) 2015 deadline to switch off analogue terrestrial TV signals.
This is according to international research firm Ovum, which attributes the much-publicised stance to a lack of public awareness, inadequate funds and insufficient supplies of set-top boxes (STB).
SA's move off analogue TV to digital - which has been in the pipeline since 2006 - has repeatedly been delayed, the latest reason being a dispute between broadcasters over STB controls.
Ovum says the reality of the situation belies the mindset prevalent among many governments and regulators in the region, that the deadline must be met at all costs.
As a consequence, says the firm, numerous sub-Saharan TV markets are considering switching off analogue TV signals before the audience has transitioned to digital. "This would mean many homes will lose TV reception, leading to advertisers switching away from TV and, in turn, a decline in TV advertising revenue."
Adam Thomas, Ovum's lead analyst for the global TV market says, in Tanzania, the switchover process was pushed through recklessly, with damaging results.
"Thousands of homes lost their ability to watch TV and advertising revenue suffered as a result. But this mentality to rush the process persists, not least in Kenya which seems intent on repeating the same mistakes."
Revenue booster
Ovum's says it also found an "understandable eagerness" among regulators to raise revenue from the sale of the spectrum that will become available following analogue switch-off and which it says will, most likely, be snapped up by mobile operators. "This is another factor behind the rushed switchover."
Ovum's Ismail Patel, who tracks media and entertainment across the Asian, Middle Eastern, and African regions, adds: "While the sale of spectrum will benefit the mobile sector, regulators could harm the TV business if they act with undue haste to get their hands on potentially lucrative spectrum.
"African governments and regulators need to accept that the 2015 deadline will be missed and shift their focus on to getting the process completed as quickly and efficiently as possible. Ovum believes that forcing through analogue switch-off is ultimately counter-productive."
In a statement released today, Ovum says it has also discovered that initial digital terrestrial TV (DTT) launches are dominated by the pay-DTT services of StarTimes and Multichoice.
"This has created a sector where the pay-DTT option represents an artificially high percentage of total homes using DTT to receive TV - an issue because people will be less willing to transition from analogue to digital TV if they believe this will mean they have to start paying for TV."
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