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Data is the new price frontier war

Johannesburg, 28 Jul 2014
SA's mobile operators need to start warring on the data front if they are to attract the consumers of today.
SA's mobile operators need to start warring on the data front if they are to attract the consumers of today.

Vodacom's effective price point of 68c and Cell C's new 50c prepaid promotional call rate indicate SA's historically high cost to communicate has dropped significantly - and may continue to do so. However, the time has come for operators to start warring for lower mobile data rates.

This is according to analysts and comes as SA's third operator has vowed to continue to push the floor call rate, indicating a permanent 50c per minute tariff is in the offing if the current mobile termination rates (MTR) remain favourable after October.

However, with the global shift from voice to data being seen now more than ever in SA, mobile price war 2012 instigator Cell C - and its rivals - will need to shift strategy to suit the fast-emerging nation of data-hungry consumers.

Data the new voice

Ovum analyst Richard Hurst notes voice remains the "killer app" and an important consideration for cost-conscious consumers (particularly in emerging markets), while World Wide Worx MD Arthur Goldstuck says this is "rapidly and radically" changing.

"Last year, voice dropped to two-thirds of the average user spend - down from three-quarters the year before - and I suspect it will have come down to 60% or less by now," says Goldstuck

And it is data that is replacing voice - in both high and low living standards measure (LSM) markets, he notes. "We have seen the most dramatic shift yet at the lower LSMs from feature to smartphone and that will result in exploding demand for data."

BMI-TechKnowledge director Brian Neilson notes that voice will only remain the greatest consideration for consumers in deep rural areas, "but in the city, and especially in the youth market, data is rapidly growing in importance as a lifestyle essential".

Neilson notes that, while Cell C's rivals will most likely be forced to follow suit with "headline" offerings (even if only promotional) they will also continue to manage the overall average revenue per user from each customer or SIM - especially in cases where the plan includes a mix of voice and data. "This requires luring more voice-only users to use smart data services - and this relies on the growth in the population of data-hungry handsets out there."

Data dereliction

Mobile price war highlights

8 May 2012: Alan Knott-Craig fires the first pricing salvo, launching calls at 99c a minute.
11 February 2013: Vodacom introduced Free4Sho, at R1.20 per minute (on a per-minute basis).
28 February 2013: MTN dropped its One Rate prepaid plan tariff to R1.20 per minute - or 2c per second - to all networks and at all times, on per-second billing.
1 March 2013: Vodacom went Red with limitless contract options, when the operator launched its smart plans dubbed Red, while Telkom Mobile allowed subscribers to effectively pay 95c a minute if they recharge for R5 or more.
24 April 2014: MTN announced its 79c per minute prepaid promotion has been made permanent.
13 May 2014 - Cell C launches a new prepaid package priced at 66c per minute and postpaid packages priced at 79c per minute.
24 July 2014: MTN offers a limited prepaid price plan enabling customers to call each other at 29c a minute, and Cell C hits back with a 50c a minute promotion.

ICT veteran Adrian Schofield says SA has quite a savvy consumer market. Feature phone users, he says, will still follow the lowest prepaid plan - but those with "smarter" devices will look for the best value data bundles. Another "elephant in the room" operators will have to contend with and strategise around, he points out, is the growing availability of WiFi in SA.

Goldstuck says "consumer champion" Cell C has fallen behind dramatically in terms of its data price policy. Referring to the company's April move to cancel its flat-rated 15c per MB data rate, he says the operator has in fact regressed.

"Cell C's latest 50c promo appears to be more of a market share play than a consumer play. At a time when they should be focusing on data, they seem to have all but abandoned that side of the business."

Hurst says SA has reached reasonable standards when it comes to voice, and now is the time for a serious cost focus to be given to SA's data rates, "where perhaps we can see the start of another minor price war looming".

International indicators

Analysts note, on the voice front, SA's tariffs have become much more attractive when viewed on the international stage.

Using The Economist's Big Mac index, which equalises exchange rates based on the base cost of MacDonald's Big Mac burger, SA compares relatively well to China Mobile's per minute charge of yen0.6, as this translates to 87c, while US Cellular comes in at 0.51c a minute when the cost of $0.10 a minute is converted using the index. However, by far the cheapest of the options seems to come from the UK's 3, which offers prepaid at £0.03 a minute, or 25c based on The Economist's index.

Using actual exchange rates, the US price comes in at R1.05, while the cost of a China Mobile minute is R1, and 3's £0.03 translates to 53c.

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