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PC sales continue to fall

Staff Writer
By Staff Writer, ITWeb
Johannesburg, 25 Nov 2014
Mature regions should see PC shipments decline again in 2015 and contract slightly through the end of the forecast, says IDC.
Mature regions should see PC shipments decline again in 2015 and contract slightly through the end of the forecast, says IDC.

The International Data Corporation (IDC) expects worldwide PC shipments to fall 2.7% in 2014, an improvement from its previous forecast of 3.7%.

It notes, although third quarter results were a few points ahead of forecast with shipments down only 0.5% from the previous year, most regions and market participants saw this as a short-term gain rather than as a sign of stronger growth in the medium- or long-term.

Mature regions continue to grow while a rebound in emerging regions has taken longer (due to a later impact from tablets as well as slower economics and commercial replacements), the IDC notes. "Western Europe and Japan performed better than expected in the third quarter, but the gains were driven by a rebound from last year and short-term factors such as building fourth quarter inventory earlier in the year and continuing Windows XP replacement activity."

Despite the relative short-term strength, mature regions are expected to see PC shipments decline again in 2015 and contract slightly through the end of the forecast, it says.

The IDC notes pressure from tablets seems to be waning as penetration rises and tablets move to smaller sizes and lower price points. "However, competition for disposable income from smartphones and phablets is rising. In addition, the market was boosted in the third quarter by factors such as a rise in low-cost systems in many markets and a rebound in Western Europe, which helped restore volume to earlier levels but not without cost in value of shipments."

"In the best case for PCs, we'd see a significant wave of replacements as users who spent on phones and tablets in recent years decide they really need to update their PC. Features like touch or convertibility, as well as Windows 10, could make systems more versatile and appealing, along with lower prices," said Loren Loverde, VP of IDC's worldwide trackers unit.

"However, we've seen steady progress on prices and new designs over the past year, and replacements are stabilising PC shipments but not boosting total volume. Going forward, as younger generations become more mobile and Web-oriented, and emerging regions in particular prioritise converged devices (or economy in number of devices to purchase), the PC market will continue to face tough competition and be more focused on replacements, with limited potential for growth," added Loverde.

Tablets slow

Meanwhile, the global tablet market is expected to see a massive deceleration in 2014, with year-over-year growth slowing to 7.2%, down from 52.5% in 2013, another IDC forecast notes.

At the core of this slowdown is the expectation that 2014 will represent the first full year of decline in Apple iPad shipments, it says. "Both the iPad and the overall market slowdown do not come as a surprise as device lifecycles for tablets have continued to lengthen, increasingly resembling those of PCs more than smartphones."

Ryan Reith, programme director with the IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Device Trackers, notes tablet lifecycles were initially expected to be between two to three years, but what has emerged is that "many tablet owners are holding onto their devices for more than three years and in some instances more than four years".

"We believe the two major drivers for longer than expected tablet lifecycles are legacy software support for older products, especially within iOS, and the increased use of smartphones for a variety of computing tasks."

Looking forward, the few unknowns that could impact overall tablet shipments are: the industry reaction to Windows 10; what Google does in this space with Android and Chrome OS; and Apple's rumoured product line expansion, says IDC. "Despite all of these unknowns, it seems clear that consumers can be expected to hold onto tablets longer than smartphones."

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