E-toll critics have described the latest state of the system's finances as a clear sign that the project is failing - as it has now emerged the South African National Roads Agency (Sanral) has collected about a third of what it expected to since the inception of e-tolling, about a year ago.
According to a Parliamentary reply by transport minister Dipuo Peters - to a question posed by Freedom Front Plus MP Anton Alberts - close to R1 billion has been collected - well down on what Sanral initially expected to collect.
Peters informed Parliament that - as at 30 September - there were 1.2 million active accounts registered on the system, as opposed to 2.5 million users. She also stated that, as at 30 September, 93 292 e-toll accounts had been deregistered.
However, the amount of R995 million that had been paid by e-toll users in the first 10 months since e-tolling was established falls way short of the amount that Sanral expected to collect, meaning the compliance rate is averaging about 37%.
Peters gave a month-to-month breakdown of the amounts collected since e-tolling was introduced last December. According to these figures, payment rates peaked between April and July, with payment collections ranging between R117 million and R120 million per month. However, payment rates again tanked in August and September, with Sanral collecting R98 million and R86 million respectively, for those two months.
Systematically failing
Reacting to the figures quoted by Peters, Alberts says it is clear the e-toll system is systematically failing. Referring to the 93 000 accounts that have been cancelled, Alberts says it speaks of an enormous number of road users who have questioned the legitimacy of the system. Should the trend continue, he adds, it can be expected that Sanral will shed close to 100 000 paying users per year, as registered users stop paying for e-tolls.
Another indication of the financial unsustainability of the system and the lack of public buy-in is the fact that only half of monthly e-toll users have registered for e-tags, says Alberts.
"This view is further strengthened by the monthly income that Sanral collected since December 2013 up to and including September 2014. The minister indicated in her reply that the e-toll income, since December 2013, showed an increase from R51.8 million to a high of R120.2 million in June 2014.
"From that point, the income showed a sharp decline to a total of R86.7 million in September 2014. This shows that those individuals who deregistered also stopped paying. Should this trend continue, a critical point of unsustainability will be reached that will result in the system imploding. This will lead to further credit rating downgrades for Sanral."
Alberts agrees it would be wise for the ANC government to set aside its stubbornness, and as soon as practicable, consider the possibility of introducing a temporary fuel levy that can be discontinued as soon as Sanral's debt is settled.
Bleak outlook
Opposition to Urban Tolling Alliance (Outa) chairperson Wayne Duvenage says the poor compliance rate is in line with what the organisation expected. "Payment rates peaked at about 42%, but then we saw a steady decline. This declining trend has shown that this is indeed a failing system."
However, the future looks even bleaker for the roads agency, with indications that it will be about R5 billion in the red by December next year, as it is racks up debt of at least R200 million a month on the Gauteng Freeway Improvement Project. In the first four months of the system going live, Sanral effectively wrote off R1.123 billion, because the overdue amount was not recognised, as the agency did not anticipate being able to collect it.
Duvenage says, at the rate Sanral is going, it will be around R2.4 billion in debt because of the project by 3 December, an amount that will escalate to about R5 billion by the end of next year.
E-toll opponents are currently expecting the system to be scrapped early next year, as Gauteng premier David Makhura studies the final e-toll report compiled by the e-toll advisory panel, which was established to assess the socio-economic impact of e-tolling in the province.
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