As matriculants expectantly await the release, this evening, of pass rates, industry observers are increasingly concerned about what the anticipated results mean for the potential skills pool in the sector.
Pundits are especially worried about the expected drop in maths and science pass rates - seen as crucial to the ICT sector's potential skills pool - while the overall matric pass rate is also expected to drop by between 3% and 5% for the first time in five years.
Speaking to City Press, professor John Volmink, head of the council of standards body Umalusi, said the overall matric pass rate drop could be attributed to a failure rate of 48% (without adjustments) in maths literacy, compared with 20% in 2013; a drop of between 5% and 6% in the pass rate for mathematics and physical science; and a drop in home language pass rates.
This comes despite the Department of Basic Education's endeavours to get more pupils to study the key subjects, and its focus on improving the overall quality of maths and sciences passes.
Anticipated dip
Of the 551 656 full-time matric students who wrote the National Senior Certificate exams last year, 231 180 (41%) were registered for mathematics, while 171 549 (31%) students were set to write the physical science exam. This is a drop compared to 2010, when 48% wrote the maths exam and 38% of pupils took science.
For 2014 matriculants, both Umalusi and the Department of Basic Education are expecting a dip in maths results. This is due to changes in the curriculum during 2014, where a large section of the 2014 exams was not previously in the curriculum.
The class of 2013's pass rates show, although 59.1% of those who wrote mathematics passed, this figure drops to 40.5%, or 97 790, when looking at passes with more than 40%. In addition, while 67.4% passed science with 30%, this drops to 42.7% when looking at passes at 40% and above.
In December, the department's Annual National Assessments (ANA) revealed a dismal 10.8% average performance for grade nine pupils in mathematics. Volmink pointed out, in 2009, it became mandatory for every matric pupil to take either mathematics or maths literacy.
The latter has always been seen as an easier option - but, explained Volmink, it was tougher than mathematics in 2014. He said understanding maths in context, which is the aim of maths literacy, is much more important than understanding algebra. "Maths literacy is potentially a very powerful subject," he is quoted as saying.
Future imperfect
ICT veteran Adrian Schofield said reports that suggest a drop in maths and science pass rates - due to poor performance - are very worrying for the ICT industry and country as a whole.
"This augurs badly for the future. We've been banging the drum for better maths and science teaching for a very long time," he said, and added a setback like this does not only push the country back by a few years, but by a whole generation.
"It seems like we've been papering over cracks on what is a crumbling edifice of an education department, but we can't seem to find a solution to improve this situation."
Inforcomm CEO and industry commentator Andile Tlhoaele said it is difficult to compare 2014 pass rates to those of previous years, as this is a new era for maths and science in terms of the new curriculum.
He explained, while a drop in maths and science pass rates is thus expected, it is encouraging that government is officially calling for an uptake in maths and science tertiary studies.
"I think that this is the first time that government is realising the full implications of poor maths and science pass rates. Thus this is the first time that a call is actually coming from the Department of Science and Technology to encourage studies in the fields of maths and science. We need to support this call," said Tlhoaele.
'Study maths and science'
Times Live this weekend quoted deputy science and technology minister Zanele KaMagwaza-Msibi as urging matriculants who receive suitable results in mathematics and science to pursue tertiary studies in these areas.
"Our country has a serious shortage of qualified personnel in maths and science. It is for this reason that I humbly urge students to do the two subjects at university level."
KaMagwaza-Msibi said the country had very few black scientists and technicians, and this gap needed to be closed. In particular, she urged girls from rural areas to pursue these kinds of careers - saying they would be offered bursaries by government and private parties in order to do so.
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