Subscribe

Deloitte's predictions for 2015

Staff Writer
By Staff Writer, ITWeb
Johannesburg, 21 Jan 2015
2015 will not be a breakthrough year for drones, says Deloitte.
2015 will not be a breakthrough year for drones, says Deloitte.

The surge of the Internet of things, limited drone adoption, smarter batteries, 3D printing traction and enterprise-led IT shifts are among Deloitte's predictions for the year ahead.

The 2015 edition of Deloitte's predictions for the technology, media, and telecommunications sectors is based on perspectives gained from "hundreds of conversations with industry leaders, and tens of thousands of consumer interviews across the globe," says the company.

Here is a summary of Deloitte's predictions:

1. IOT gains

Among its predictions is that, this year, a billion wireless Internet of things (IOT) devices will be shipped, a gain of 60% on last year, and leading to an installed base of 2.8 billion devices. IOT-specific hardware is likely to be worth $10 billion, and the associated services enabled by the devices worth about $70 billion.

IOT hardware and connectivity revenues are growing at about 10% to 20% each year, while apps, analytics and services are growing even more rapidly at 40% to 50%. Deloitte predicts 60% of all wireless IOT devices will be bought, paid for and used by enterprises and industries, and 90% of the services revenue will be enterprise-driven.

2. Life-saving drones

While aerial drones have a tremendous number of potential applications, especially for enterprise and government, Deloitte does not expect 2015 to be a breakthrough year for the gadgets. It predicts that, this year, the active base of non-military drones costing $200 or more should exceed one million units for the first time.

Deloitte also expects sales of non-military drones (also known as unmanned aerial vehicles), to be about 300 000 units in 2015, with most being bought by consumers or prosumers. Total industry revenue should come in at between $200 million to $400 million this year.

Deloitte notes key factors limiting adoption include crashes, regulatory uncertainty, and price points.

3. Enterprise uptake of 3D printing

Deloitte predicts nearly 220 000 3D printers will be sold worldwide, with a dollar value of $1.6 billion, which represents 100% unit growth against 2014. However, the company says, there will not be a "factory in every home" as the revolution will come from the enterprise market, not consumers.

By 2017, about 70% of units will be sold to consumers, but almost all of these will be small units with relatively limited capabilities, says Deloitte. Dollar value and use will be heavily skewed to the enterprise market, which Deloitte estimates will account for just under 90% of the value of all 3D printers; over 95% of all printed objects by volume; and 99% by economic value.

4. Click-and-collect boost

Deloitte predicts the number of click-and-collect locations in Europe will reach 500 000 in 2015, a 20% increase on last year. It says click-and-collect will likely become an increasingly fundamental part of the e-commerce offer.

However, merchants will need to take care to avoid potential pitfalls, including the cost of storage space, over-stocked baskets on the back, or easily returned items and a surge in return volumes, says Deloitte.

Although click-and-collect is most prevalent in Europe, other regions are also deploying it, but are at earlier phases of deployment, the company adds.

5. Slight battery advances

Deloitte predicts the rechargeable, lithium ion battery technology used in all smartphones will improve only modestly in 2015. It anticipates this year's batteries to have no more than 5% greater unit charge or milliampere hours compared to a 2014 model of the same dimensions and voltage.

In addition, Deloitte does not expect to see anything more than a modest improvement from lithium ion at any time in the future - with an estimated maximum increase of 30% before the technology hits a ceiling.

New smartphone owners may still see a 15% increase in battery life, but this will mostly be due to other factors such as better software and more efficient components, it adds.

6. Nanosat surge

Deloitte predicts that by the end of 2015, over 500 nanosatellites (nanosats) will be in orbit, a 300% increase in the installed base.

It notes the satellites are much lighter, smaller and cheaper than traditional commercial satellites. As a result, they are easier to launch.

"Although nanosats are currently much less capable than traditional satellites, will they follow a similar path to PCs and camera phones ? come in at the low-end, keep improving and eventually dominate the market? Deloitte predicts the answer is probably 'no'."

7. Enterprise-driven IT

Deloitte also predicts this will be the year the impetus for IT adoption will swing back to the enterprise market following a decade of consumer-led technological change.

It notes the past decade has seen the consumer leading the way when it comes to taking up technologies, such as large touch-screen smartphones. "Enterprises were not only slow in taking to these now-ubiquitous devices; in many cases they tried to ban or restrict their use for work purposes."

However, last year saw enterprise applications generating much more value and excitement. Deloitte notes three of this year's predictions focus on technologies that are receiving a lot of consumer-related hype (3D printing, drones, and IOT), but it is businesses that are putting the technologies to practical and widespread use. This shift back to the "re-enterprisation of IT" is likely to be a boon for the CIO, adds Deloitte.

Share