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Forget TV: Missed digital deadline will cost SA dearly

Martin Czernowalow
By Martin Czernowalow, Contributor.
Johannesburg, 27 Jan 2015

As SA's broadcast digital migration slowly splutters to life, industry observers are struggling to add up the hidden costs of the country missing the international switchover deadline this June.

Government is preparing to award tenders for the provision of set-top boxes, satellite dishes and antennas for digital migration at the end of February or beginning of March. However, it is estimated the country will miss the international switchover deadline by at least a year, if not more.

While, the International Telecom Union's (ITU's) 17 June deadline will see it stop protecting analogue broadcast, making these subject to interference from spill-over signals, pundits say this is by far not the worst consequence faced by the country.

ICT veteran Adrian Schofield does not expect to see measurable progress before the first half of 2016 - just ahead of local government elections. However, the delay in reassigning the spectrum that should be vacated by the analogue signals is one of the biggest socio-economic challenges SA needs to address.

Spectrum reallocation is desperately needed to improve the broadband capacity and coverage that is part of the government's plan, he explains. "It has to be a given that the spectrum that we are all waiting for would give greater reach to broadband networks.

Economic burden

"And people with broadband access tend to be more economically active, as greater access to information means people can be more productive. There is a whole range of activities that go with broadband access that are not suitable for 2G connectivity."

Schofield points out people in rural and underserviced areas are most likely to feel the greatest impact of delayed spectrum allocation, as they will remain unconnected. "Government has not even worked out targets for universal access, or even how best to implement its universal access policy. But the most important point is that you can't reach the people without a broadband network."

However, the formal economic sector is also likely to suffer as a result of digital migration delays, says Schofield, adding the biggest growth sector within the economy is small business. Currently, he says, too many small businesses are paying too high a price to get connected, and have to bear the burden of slow or unreliable connections.

"I think it will be two more years at least before we can set a date to switch off the analogue signals. If we begin to achieve serious numbers of converted users before the end of the year, it will be a tribute to anybody except the government," he adds.

Schofield also feels SA need not be concerned about the lack of protection of analogue signals after the looming ITU deadline. "As long as the analogue signals continue to be broadcast, I don't see any serious implications in terms of people being able to watch TV.

Promises, promises

"I don't see any punishment from the ITU or our neighbours because of missing the deadline, although it is possible we will see degradation of the analogue signals once the frequencies become 'unregulated'."

Ovum senior analyst Richard Hurst has long been critical of government's inability to move forward with digital migration, saying SA is falling seriously behind other African states in terms of digital switch-over. "Digital migration has been on the table for years and nothing has happened. It's happening in a very haphazard way; the money that this is costing should have been injected into the ICT ecosystem a long time ago."

Hurst points out government's unfulfilled promises of increasing access to spectrum means local companies are being forced to innovate and squeeze their assets. "The challenge is that the operators have to refarm their existing spectrum to cater for the demand in mobile broadband. However, they find themselves having to provide services with a finite capacity.

"Once spectrum has been allocated, I am sure the country will see a surge in the uptake of mobile broadband services, with a corresponding decline in the cost of connection, which should also serve to spur other downstream activities such as content and application development."

Harmful consequences

The real damage that SA will suffer as a result of missing the digital migration deadline is to its reputation, notes World Wide Worx MD Arthur Goldstuck. "We find ourselves in the same category of non-compliance and non-delivery as failed governments, like those of Yemen and the Palestinian Authority. From an image and reputation point of view, that is hardly the signal you want to send to your own population, or to foreign investors.

"Bear in mind the deadline was set in 2005, and agreed to by all 193 members of the ITU. When former minister of communications [Ivy] Matsepe-Casaburri first announced SA's roadmap in 2008, it was already obvious from all the preconditions and limitations placed in the way of migration that government targets (initially 2011, then regularly deferred) would not be met."

Goldstuck notes there is always a chance that "someone figures out how to turn words into action, and that we don't miss the deadline by too much, but that requires a commitment to urgency rather than to political agendas".

Meanwhile, the multibillion-rand tenders for the provision of set-top boxes, satellite dishes and antennas for digital broadcast migration have attracted bids from only 17 companies, according to the Universal Service and Access Agency of SA.

The agency issued four requests for proposals in November last year, for the manufacture and supply of some five million decoders - with and without encryption - as well as for the provision of satellite dishes and antennas.

Even if government manages to award the tenders within its proposed timelines, it will likely take another three to four months before set-top box manufacturing starts, by which time the country would have missed the ITU deadline.

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