The development of autonomous-driving technology is gaining momentum and vehicles with varying levels of self-driving capability will start to become available to consumers soon.
That's according to a study by the Boston Consulting Group's (BCG's) ongoing research into the trends driving the development and likely adoption of autonomous vehicles (AVs). The firm surveyed 1 500 consumers in the US who recently bought, or are planning to buy, a new car.
In the report, BCS predicts that partially autonomous vehicles, powered by strong consumer interest, are likely to hit the road in large numbers by 2017.
"It's no longer a question of if, but when autonomous vehicles will hit the road," says Xavier Mosquet, a senior partner and MD of BCG's Detroit office.
"In the auto industry's most significant inflection point in 100 years, vehicles with varying level of self-driving capability - ranging from single lane highway driving to autonomous valet parking to traffic jam autopilot - will start to become available to consumers as soon as mid-2015 or early 2016."
While prototypes of Google's AVs have been highly publicised, global carmakers and Silicon Valley upstarts have been jostling to unveil self-driving vehicles. Audi, for example, unveiled its highly autonomous A7 model, which has highway-driving capability, at the 2015 Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.
BMW has tested its autonomous Series 2 model. Daimler is trailing both highly and semi-autonomous vehicles in the US and Germany. Telsa and GM are planning to roll out models capable of hand-free highway driving later this year and next year respectively. Nissan has already tested autonomous drive technology, which enables highly autonomous functionality on public roads in Japan.
Volvo and various Swedish government bodies last year unveiled the "Drive Me" initiative in which 100 self-driving cars navigate public road ways in everyday conditions in and around the city of Gothenburg.
Technology giant Apple is also reportedly looking beyond mobile devices to learn how to make a self-driving electric car.
Honda Motor last month also joined Daimler AG's Mercedes-Benz in testing self-driving vehicles and technologies on private roads at a former US naval facility outside San Francisco.
According to BCG, suppliers are also preparing for the AV future as well. Bosch, Continental, Delphi Automotive and Nvidia are among the suppliers that are in the advanced stages of positioning, guidance and processing the technology needed to make AVs a commercial reality, it adds.
"Self-driving vehicles will hit the road sooner than many people realise. And although the journey to market maturity will take 20 years or more, it's not too soon for auto executives, regulators, and all players in the transportation and tech spheres to start preparing for the sweeping changes on the horizon," says Mosquet.
He notes the age of the AV will arrive not all at once but in stages. The first autonomous feature to become available will probably be the single-lane highway autopilot, with Tesla's planned introduction in mid-2015, followed by GM's version of the feature, called Super Cruise, which will appear in 2016 on an all-new Cadillac vehicle, he adds.
However, Mosquet points out mass adoption will not occur until sensor technology and integration software are more fully developed, at a potential cost of roughly $1 billion per original equipment manufacturer (OEM).
Moreover, he explains, vehicles must be secured against cyber attacks, and uncertainty over liability must be resolved, social resistance overcome, and high-precision maps developed.
Judging from customers' stated willingness to pay, BCG believes OEMs can achieve 25% market penetration with a favourable pricing strategy. A higher rate of penetration would require OEMs to reduce the cost of other inputs (such as interiors or power trains) or persuade consumers to pay a higher premium.
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