As long-term evolution (LTE) becomes conventional and leads global mobile connections, South Africa remains stuck in the telecoms dark ages - with the lack of connectivity impeding investment.
This is according to analysts, and comes as the Global mobile Suppliers Association (GSA) on Friday said there are now 635 million LTE subscribers globally, and the technology could be considered "mainstream". The association said, over the past three quarters, LTE has led net mobile subscriber additions and, year-on-year, has seen uptake of the technology gain 151.4% between March 2014 and this March.
However, SA continues to lag in high-speed broadband, according to data provided by Ovum - which is the same dataset the GSA used to determine the number of LTE subscribers globally.
Locally, there are almost two million LTE users, an 84% year-on-year increase, according to Ovum's data, which includes numbers from MTN, Neotel, Telkom and Vodacom. Vodacom leads the way with almost 891 000 users as of the end of March. It is followed by MTN with 729 561 users; Telkom at 317 010; and Neotel bringing up the rear with 33 688 users.
These statistics mean fewer than one in 10 smartphone and tablet users are on LTE in SA.
Not always on
However, World Wide Worx MD Arthur Goldstuck notes not all two million LTE users will be accessing the technology all of the time; for most of the day, the connection will drop down to 3G.
Between MTN, Telkom and Vodacom, there are now about 5 000 LTE sites across the country. In April, Cell C said it would invest R8 billion over the next three years to build 4 000 LTE towers.
Goldstuck says the roll-out of LTE is hampered by constraints such as a lack of high-demand spectrum. He notes the lack of high-speed broadband is frustrating investors and harming the economy.
This, Goldstuck explains, is because investors will seek other countries where a lack of investment does not hurt their ability to operate. He notes the top investment criterion is market conditions. This is followed by concerns over crime and then infrastructure, which includes Eskom's inability to maintain stable power output, and a lack of connectivity.
Goldstuck says, because the country is not able to offer the benefits of LTE - faster speeds and a more efficient network - SA is being left in the telecoms dark ages.
Ovum analyst Richard Hurst concurs, noting SA has "done nothing to latch onto LTE", and the country is falling further behind. "It's almost like this is what we do, stifle innovation."
Hurstadds SA has not yet seen any meaningful traction in LTE, while the world is already starting to talk about 5G. He notes the country has created a "market of scarcity" and will continue to play catch-up as operators are hobbled by a lack of spectrum.
SA's lack of LTE availability will have consequences for education, as students will not benefit from the technology, which allows for more connections, as well as for investment, adds Hurst.
Global view
Meanwhile, the GSA expects the number of LTE subscriptions to reach around 3.7 billion by the end of 2020, which is when it will pass the 3G/WCDMA-HSPA global base. So far, 393 operators have commercially launched LTE systems in 138 countries.
The GSA also forecasts 460 commercially launched LTE networks by end 2015, while 116 operators, or 30% of LTE providers, are investing in LTE-Advanced (LTE-A) technology. About 64 - or one in six - LTE operators have launched LTE-A.
Locally, Telkom is the only operator to have launched LTE-A, as it is the only celco with the necessary spectrum.
Alan Hadden, VP of research at the GSA, says 382 million LTE subscriptions were gained in the past year, equivalent to 151.4% annual growth. The gains reveal the demand for an improved user experience of mobile broadband and the wider access to smartphones, with more than a billion LTE subscriptions expected by year-end.
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