Go ahead, drink and drive

Toyota, Google, Elon Musk, Mercedes - these are just some of the big names associated with big trends in automotive technology and development. In 2015, Toyota revealed its ongoing research into artificial vehicle intelligence and robotics, Google accelerated its production of the driverless car, and Elon Musk, well, he's just all over the inventive show with the car of the future. It may seem like a sudden and explosive shift from the engine of 1876 to the driverless, connected car of 2020, but if compared with the evolution of the mobile phone, the car is very, very slow.

The mobile phone leapt from the giant headcrab that was the Motorola DynaTAC 8000X to the first smartphone - the IBM Simon - in a mere ten years. The engine in your car hasn't changed that much in 140 years. It's time for the car to evolve and adapt to the trends that define the modern world, and with the Internet of Things (IoT) taking front and centre in the motor industry today, things are starting to change. But will they really, really go beyond just media statements and test runs?

Says Frank Gillet, Forrester principle analyst: "One thing I think we'll see is an increased number of devices that will try to plug into the diagnostic port under the dash, the so-called `OBD' (on-board diagnostic) port. What we will see then in the development of vehicles of the next five to ten years is a remaking and rethinking of how these things work together. We're going to discover new and better ways that the phones can talk to the cars and the cars work with the phones and then this additional idea of accessories that you can add to a car to improve that experience, particularly for older, used cars."

Michael Frans, head: Business Development: Business Operations Automotive, T-Systems, agrees: "One key trend will be the proliferation of app stores in the vehicle. We're not necessarily referring to apps on a smartphone, but native connected car apps that read out your e-mail, suggest alternative routes, book plane flights, and turn on the heating system in your house - to name just a few possibilities. These apps will be intuitive and immersive, subtly enhancing the journey for drivers and passengers, and helping people get more value from the time they spend in the car."

Most analysts feel the IoT will make a tangible difference in how cars are driven and experienced. The industry is undergoing a significant transformation as it looks to ways of taking advantage of technology while remaining competitive and engaging consumers.

"Traditional automotive companies are changing their business model from being a product supplier with a car-centric hardware business to being mobility service providers, with a people-centric business, providing services around bringing people from point A to destination B," says Michael Tworek, head of Marketing for Automotive Solutions, Gemalto. "The keys to success are innovation and close co-operation with essential value chain partners such as IoT service providers, energy companies, etc."

These apps will be intuitive and immersive, subtly enhancing the journey for drivers and passengers, and helping people get more value from the time they spend in the car.

Michael Frans, T-Systems

Of course, any talk of the connected car inevitably leans towards the driverless car. It's happened already. Google has set the standard, the technology is increasingly more affordable to use and develop and artificial intelligence has improved significantly. Already there are pundits and organisations claiming that soon the roads will be heaving with driverless vehicles. However, this is not a view shared by all...

"I think we are quite a way away from the driverless car in South Africa for three reasons: acceptance, awareness and price," says Alan Robinson, Traffic Engineering specialist at Sanral. "Driver acceptance will be a challenge as people like driving their cars. It may be put into action in the morning commute, though. The second is that connected cars tend to allow for a reduced following distance, which many people will find very uncomfortable as they sit right on the tail of the car in front. Finally, the cost of a driverless car is prohibitive - in SA, they may cost an extra half a million on top of the price of the car and the average person can't afford that."

Ricardo Coetzee, managing executive: Automotive, Innovation Group South Africa, agrees: "Our research indicates that self-driving cars may only become a reality in South Africa in 20 years or more. Others are more sceptical about the practical feasibility, where infrastructure limitations hold back the vision, at least in the foreseeable future."

The self-driving car may not be a guarantee for South Africa, but it will definitely introduce new paradigms in terms of how drivers can work and be entertained. It goes back to the idea that cars are shifting from things to solutions. The real change is going to come about in terms of how existing technology will work with systems built into the cars. Ways in which information is displayed, providing drivers with tools to make informed decisions and collecting data that can be used to transform roads, driver safety and route choices. In South Africa, fibre-optic routes have been selected and implemented with these goals in mind, creating the infrastructure needed to communicate to vehicles, detect incidents and react to emergencies far more effectively.

...the cost of a driverless car is prohibitive - in SA they may cost an extra half a million on top of the price of the car and the average person can't afford that.

Alan Robinson, Sanral

"In the 1970s, bar codes were state-of-the-art when it came to product intelligence. Today, machine intelligence derives from a large array of sensors and real-time decision-making software. Luxury cars are loaded with as many as 100 microprocessor-based electronic control units and around 100 million lines of software. Yet we are still just beginning the journey," says Lee Naik, MD, Accenture Digital. "In the near future, intelligent motor vehicle products will initiate tasks and communicate with other equipment, tailor their user interfaces, recommendations and movements to meet customer preferences. Last but not least, cars will prevent accidents and failures during operation and take action in uncertain or adverse conditions."

Advancing the tech war

It used to be that in order to see the future of automotive technology, you only had to look at the latest Mercedes S-Class or BMW 7 Series. For years, those models marked the pinnacle of automotive engineering with new technologies first making their appearance there before trickling down the food chain to a point where they became mainstream, or even standard technology.

That isn't the case anymore. Just look at the high end of any manufacturer's model range and you will see some of the most interesting technologies around. Some are hidden away, including increasingly sophisticated engine management systems, and others are a vital part of the interaction between car and driver. These include serious advances in the lighting systems and many of the advanced cruise control systems that are paving the way for autonomous cars in the future.

Luckily for drivers and passengers, the technology that first made its appearance in smartphones and tablets is now coming to motor vehicles, including the ability to control the infotainment system by simply waving your hand in front of it - no more prodding on unresponsive touch screens - as is evidenced in the latest BMW 7 Series and the new Jaguar F-Pace. The integration of always-on technology and smarter GPS systems is evidence that motor manufacturers have realised they need to compete with smartphones for the hearts and minds of their customers as much as they have to compete with each other.

And then there are some technologies that only really have a use for a specific subset of owners, such as the activity key wristband that locks the new Jaguar F-Pace when you head off on a run or ride and then unlocks it again when you return, removing the need to carry your key with you.

A trend apart

While South Africa may not be the first place everyone goes to try out a life of driverless commuting, there are still some incredible trends and developments that may well impact the country in the short and long term.

"Each year, about 14 000 drivers, passengers and pedestrians die on South African roads - that's the equivalent of a Boeing 747 full of passengers crashing every ten days," says Ricardo Coetzee, managing executive: Automotive, Innovation Group South Africa. "Human error constitutes more than 80% of these collisions. Collating data, applying data analytics and coupling mobile sensing technology can help improve driver behaviour."

For those South Africans who are limited by disability, the driverless car can unlock entirely new levels of freedom. "By 2020, 75% of cars shipped globally will be built with the necessary hardware to connect to the internet," says Michael Frans, head: Business Development: Business Operations Automotive, T-Systems. "Ultimately, autonomous driving will give us the freedom to completely re-think the nature of the car. It could become an office environment, a lounge, an entertainment room, or anything else that we might imagine."

Michael Tworek, head of Marketing for Automotive Solutions, Gemalto, points out that the trend will also allow for the re-imaging of vehicles completely: "Mercedes-Benz, for example, unveiled its plans to create luxury self-driving cars, with the F 015 prototype aiming to turn connected cars into mobile living rooms. And what's a living room without high-speed internet connectivity and high-quality entertainment? By offering seats that swivel around and 4K touchscreens, our expectations of road transportation may never be the same again."

Grant Fraser, product and marketing director, MiX Telematics, adds his own trend to the, ahem, mix: "Geo-fencing is a great example of internet-enabled innovation within the personal safety space. It allows consumers to customise their safety zones. Coupled with GPS pinpoint technology, it notifies you when you enter a dangerous area. Alerts can be generated and shared using your smartphone, allowing family members to know when you enter unsafe zones."

Finally, Simon Carpenter, SAP African chief technical advisor, says that the insurance industry may have to wake up in the cold light of technology day: "The ability for vehicles and drivers to generate large amounts of data, coupled with the convergence of hyper-connectivity, cloud, analytics, in-memory computing and socio-economic changes such as the sharing economy, Green movement, and peer-based networks pose new challenges and opportunities for the insurance industry. One example is that customers will inherently be less willing to pay expensive premiums once systems like Lane Departure, Park Assist and Adaptive Cruise control are widely deployed."

This article was first published in the September 2016 edition of ITWeb Brainstorm magazine. To read more, go to the Brainstorm website.