Ultrabooks to usher in change?

As the first wave of ultra-thin and ultra-light notebooks, based on Intel's ultrabook specification, begin to hit shelves, many are speculating as to their impact on the mobile computing market.

Intel unveiled the updated class of laptops at Computex, in May. The ultrabook is widely seen as Intel's response to Apple's ultra-thin MacBook Air.

At the time, Intel executives said ultrabooks would merge the performance capabilities of modern laptops with tablet-like features and instant-on functionality.

The first manufacturers to bring ultrabooks to market this year will be Acer, Toshiba and Lenovo. All laptops in this category feature low-voltage Intel processors, extended battery life, instant-on capability, no optical drive, integrated graphics and Flash-based SSDs. They are also all less than 0.8 inches thick and weigh less than 1.5kg.

Intel has bet big on the new laptops, predicting ultrabooks will account for 40% of the consumer laptop market worldwide by the end of 2012. The company has also created a $300 million fund to help stimulate the market for the Intel-based ultrabooks.

The first release of ultrabooks this year will be followed by two more waves in 2012 and 2013, as Intel rolls out new processors.

Acer will be the first to market with the Aspire S3, which begins shipping this month. The ultrabook has a 13.3-inch HD LED display, is 1.3cm thick and weighs less than 1.5kg. It also has up to seven hours of battery life and features Acer's Instant On and Instant Connect technologies. Lenovo will unveil the IdeaPad U300 and U400 ultrabooks in October, and Toshiba will enter the market in November with the Portege Z830 Series.

The first offering from Acer is expected to be priced at about $1 140. The 13-inch MacBook Air is currently available in SA for R9 999.

Christopher Riley, MD of The Notebook Company, says ultrabooks will do what netbooks tried to do, but failed, due to their weak processors.

“One needs to remember that tablets have a serious role to play in the mobile market. As prices come down, users will more easily buy an ultrabook than the bulkier laptops.

“I believe there is serious market for lightweight, long battery life, thin and light notebooks - but not as much as 40%,” says Riley. He adds that a large part of the laptop market is not mobile computing anymore, but rather “laptop instead of desktop computing”.

Steven Ambrose, MD of Strategy Worx, says the new category from the laptop manufacturing industry will be superior to the current offerings on the market, but will struggle to hit the price performance ratio Apple has already introduced.

According to Ambrose, the portable laptop market had remained essentially unchanged until the arrival of the MacBook Air from Apple.

“There is no doubt that the manufacturers are trying to play catch-up,” notes Ambrose. “The issue is that Apple has a focused manufacturing strategy, based on a limited product offering, and a highly-optimised supply chain, which allows them greater profitability and manufacturing efficiency.

“The current strategy of all the other laptop manufacturers who offer a virtual smorgasbord of options, configurations, and choices, will never allow them to make products as innovative or cost-effective as Apple can offer.”

Ambrose adds that these manufacturers “needed Intel” to guide them toward a form factor Apple has already perfected. In the absence of a complete product strategy rethink, Ambrose says the other manufacturers will struggle to make devices that can truly compete with the MacBook Air.

Arthur Goldstuck, MD of World Wide Worx, says: “The issue with ultrabooks is exactly the same as with tablets: they first have to compete with Apple on design, features and quality, and then they still need to compete on price.

“The manufacturers have a long legacy in laptops, so it shouldn't be as much of a technology catch-up as a strategy catch-up,” says Goldstuck.

“Apple has a head-start with the Air, but it's not as much of a head-start as with the iPad. If the rest of the market can come in at an aggressively lower price, they can compete rather than merely catch-up.”

Goldstuck adds that the first real contender he's seen is the Samsung Series 9, which compares well on design and features, but lags behind the Air on performance.

“However, it is priced at a premium to the Air, which means it has lost the battle before it's started,” says Goldstuck, adding that the 40% market share is unlikely given the probable price points of the ultrabooks.

“The only way they are going to be able to take such market share is to come into the market at prices that compare with current laptop prices. They will be hugely popular if they offer the kind of specs available from current laptops. If they are priced at a premium, they will be regarded as luxury items.”

Senior IDC analyst, Hannes Fourie, also notes that the biggest inhibitor for ultrabooks is their price. “If their price becomes more competitive compared to traditional notebooks, then we will surely see a surge in these solutions.”

Fourie adds that the IDC defines “ultraportable notebooks” as having a screen size that measures up to 12.1 inches (and typically weigh less than 2kg). “We see this market being challenged by the traditional notebooks of all screen sizes due to more affordable price points,” says Fourie.

“The most important features for notebook buyers are: price, brand, battery life, size and weight. So at this stage the bestselling notebooks are affordable and offer value for money by addressing all the other features mentioned.”

Ambrose says the main advantage ultrabooks will have is that they natively run Windows.

“Even if the new category is only 75% as good as the MacBook Air, they will still be far lighter, with far superior battery life, than the best of today's ultraportable laptops,” says Ambrose.

“Coupled with the Microsoft advantage, they will definitely account for a big share of the market going forward.

“I anticipate that the current tablet revolution with the major advantage of weight, size, and extended battery life, will fundamentally change the portable computer market, and the ultrabook, or similar, will come to dominate the market within two years.”

New laptops include tablet features