London, 02 Feb 2012
Cisco's chief futurologist and technologist, Dave Evans, has outlined what he believes to be the 10 most important technology trends that will shape the world in the next decade. First presented in July last year, Evans shared his thoughts on the subject again at CiscoLive! Europe, in London, this week.
1. The Internet of things
Evans says the Internet has already undergone four phases of change, but the hardware layer underneath it hasn't fundamentally changed.
"Yet now, it is doubling at an exponential rate - doubling in size every 3.5 years and in the next 10 years there will be more than seven devices per person connected to the Internet," says Evans.
As connected devices proliferate, they are also decreasing in size and becoming able to communicate among themselves as wireless coverage becomes more pervasive.
"IPv6 also signals the beginning of connectivity without meaningful limits," says Evans, adding that the new protocol will provide enough IP addresses for every atom to have 100 addresses each.
2. The zettaflood is coming
Evans says that by 2015, one zettabyte of data will flow over the Internet. "This is the equivalent of a stack of books from Earth to Pluto - stacked 20 times.
"We will continue creating tools and technologies that cater for our insatiable desire to create and consume content," says Evans, including examples such as interactive surfaces, transparent displays and every-surface displays.
"Richer data demands more from the network, it demands optimised architectures for security and quality."
3. Wisdom from cloud
"By 2020, one-third of all data will exist in the cloud," says Evans, adding that global cloud services will jump 20% per year.
"With the cloud comes the ability to mine human knowledge and to put an intelligent front on it."
Evans uses the example of real-time translation technologies as well as advanced voice recognition technologies which we are already seeing in the likes of Siri.
According to Evans, the cloud also offers the opportunity for humans to boost their capacity to learn and store intelligence.
"The way our brains work is that when they're bombarded with new information, we get rid of the old information. But, without trying to be too futuristic, we are going to begin augmenting ourselves to extend our own capacity. We will be able to access our knowledge and shared intelligence through devices."
4. The next Net
Network speeds in the home have increased by 170 000 times since 1990, and according to Evans, they will increase three million times in the next 10 years. In line with this, networks will scale to meet future demands.
5. The world is flat and so is your technology
"Humans advance only because of our ability to communicate. And it with become possible to communicate with anyone on the planet in rich ways, in real-time," says Evans.
"We are already seeing the social networking revolution, where people are using those tools to provide transparency and global awareness instantly. In 10 years anyone will be able to broadcast anywhere on any device, providing unprecedented transparency."
6. Power of power
Evans says in the next decade we will be able to harness alternative energy and become smarter in our use of power.
"Switching to alternative energy is akin to putting man on the moon. It requires not one solution, but an orchestrated, networked solution."
Evans says IPv6 also offers potential for energy efficiency, as in the next decade all light bulbs and anything with an on-off switch could have IPv6 connections and will be connected to the smart networks of the future that can monitor and regulate energy usage.
7. It's all about you
"Traditionally, humans have always had to adapt to technology and learn new interfaces and paradigms. But now technology is adapting to us," says Evans.
Examples include gesture-based computing, interactive TV, facial recognition, and always on technologies that will soon be able to be incorporated into glasses and contact lenses - all of which will be connected to the cloud and our social graphs for personalised content streaming.
8. Next dimension
Evans says we are on the verge of a major shift in manufacturing. "We are moving into a world where one size fits one, and anything and everything can be created on demand. While we download files and music now, in the future we will think nothing of downloading physical goods from the network."
3D printing currently allows for 40 different types of materials to be printed. "Anyone can go online, design things and have them printed and delivered to their door.
"Think about how fast a company can iterate on innovation with this type of technology," says Evans, who believes it is feasible that personal 3D printers will be in homes in the future.
9. Another family tree
"We will create machines that are on par with humans in terms of intellect and intelligence," says Evans, adding that there have been significant leaps and bounds in robotics technology.
"From a networking perspective, they are loosely nothing more than sensor-laden, video-laden devices."
It is predicted that it will be possible to make a conscious computer with super human intelligence before 2020.
10. You, only better
According to Evans, humans are crossing the threshold from discovery into controlling our own destiny, where technology results in fundamental changes to us as a society and species.
"We are becoming a self-evolving species where we will be able to control the aging process; we already have the proof of principle. One thing is for certain, and that is that we will live much longer - up to 200 years in the near future."
Share