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Gartner predicts top 10 mobile technologies


Johannesburg, 28 Mar 2012

Presented at Gartner's Mobile Strategy Seminar, held yesterday in Johannesburg, these are the top 10 mobile technologies that will change business (as described by Gartner research VP, Leif-Olof Wallin).

HTML5

By 2015, Gartner predicts HTML 5 will deliver 50% of all applications that would have been native in 2011. Wallin notes, however, that while HTML5 is often presented as the solution to all problems, it will not be the only solution for some applications, since it is not yet fully standardised. Wallin warns developers and business to expect fragmentation and to adapt applications accordingly.

Near-field communication

“This is really great technology that has unfortunately just taken forever to mature,” says Wallin, adding that it will undoubtedly become the leading 'touch to act' tech. According to Gartner, near-field communication (NFC) will enable numerous capabilities such as payments, ticketing, vouchers and coupons, check-in services, access control and information sharing. “There is already support from key platforms and vendors such as Android, Nokia and RIM,” notes Wallin.

Wallin, however, warns that m-payment solutions won't happen readily and commercial and technical battles are expected to emerge between banks, network operators and Internet mega-vendors.

Platform independent AD tools

Gartner says no single mobile platform will dominate, and HTML5 alone will not satisfy all cross-platform development needs. As a result, there is opportunity in recognising that operating systems are not the only platforms one should be independent of.

Location and context

By adding location and contextual intelligence to services, there is the opportunity to change consumer or employee behaviour, says Wallin. According to Gartner, applications will become more proactive in their functionality and increasingly hyper-personalised.

Wallin warns, however, that the technology is still very immature, and there are privacy concerns to be taken into account. An example of this technology would be an application that can remind the user of someone's birthday, tap into their social profile to suggest an appropriate gift, and use location services to suggest the nearest store.

Bluetooth 4

Gartner says Bluetooth 4 will become the standard way for sensors and peripherals to talk to a wide range of mobile devices. This will enable new business models based on sensing new accessories and new capabilities, such as proximity applications.

For example, smart jewellery such as a watch that can communicate with one's mobile phone and display incoming messages or alerts. Wallin, however, cautions that the technology is still immature and market penetration will take another one to three years.

802.11ac

Gartner says WiFi has a strong roadmap through to 2014, and notes there is renewed interest in the technology to offload cellular traffic. 802.11ac and related wireless standards will allow for HD video apps to become more practical and enable machine-to-machine communication. It is, however, noted that the difference between peak and 'real world' speeds must be considered.

Machine-to-machine, smart products

Gartner predicts that by 2015, there will be more devices on cellular networks than actual cellphones. This provides the opportunity to “illuminate information shadows” and transform business models, according to Wallin.

An example would be a shift from ownership to a pay-as-you-use model and the creation of innovative always-on devices and services. Wallin notes, however, that it is a very complex space with many stakeholders, and complex integration challenges should be anticipated.

Augmented reality

Wallin says opportunity lies in the capacity to overlay real-time information onto images, as well as leveraging gamification and mapping technologies to create unique synergies. The technology is, however, currently immature, fragmented and indoor wireless location sensing is still a challenge.

Multiplatform multiple device management

This offers the opportunity to better manage consumerisation and employee demands for choice within the workplace. Wallin cautions that innovation in this space must be wary of vendor lock-in and market consolidation.

Long-term evolution

While Gartner does not expect LTE to become a reality in SA in the next couple of years, it is still a key technology that should be considered and planned for, with greater network speeds offering new opportunities for innovation.

Gartner identifies 2011 tech trends

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