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Mobile network burden continues to grow

Cellular network operators will continue to buckle amid unabated growth in data usage and smartphone sales.

Bonnie Tubbs
By Bonnie Tubbs, ITWeb telecoms editor.
Sweden, 29 Aug 2013
Networks are not getting worse - demand and requirements placed on them are advancing, says Patrik Cerwall, Ericsson's head of strategy, marketing and intelligence.
Networks are not getting worse - demand and requirements placed on them are advancing, says Patrik Cerwall, Ericsson's head of strategy, marketing and intelligence.

Network operators are fated to have to play catch-up, as long as mobile subscriptions, smartphone sales and mobile data traffic continue to climb at the rapid rate they have been over the past few years.

This is according to Patrik Cerwall, Ericsson's head of strategy, marketing and intelligence, who presented an interim update to the global telecommunications company's annual mobility report yesterday.

With global mobile uptake for the second quarter (Q2) of 2013 closely mirroring those delineated in the company's full report in June, Cerwall says end-users' behaviour and thirst for mobile connectivity is unlikely to change in the near future. This, he says, presents significant capacity challenges that mobile players will have to get used to managing if they are to stay in the game.

"Only now are we realising the impact of the huge growth [in connected mobile activity] on networks. It is creating a perception that the networks are getting worse, but it is, in fact, our requirements that are increasing. With voice, video and HD video increasingly required [by end-users], it is clear that networks face challenges."

Latest data

Ericsson's interim data reveals there were 105 million net additions to global subscriptions in Q2 2013. This brings total mobile subscriptions to 6.5 billion - with Africa accounting for about 780 million of these, says Cerwall.

While China accounted for a hefty chunk of the quarter's net additions (30%), Africa followed closely behind, with 20 million net additions to mobile subscriptions over the three-month period under review. Nigeria makes up four million of this number, according to Ericsson.

Cerwall says the annual growth rate of 6% is set to continue until 2018 - when the company expects to see more mobile connections in the world than people. "Mobile subscriptions have grown around 7% year-on-year, and 2% quarter-on-quarter.

In terms of the amount of mobile data doing a back and forth over the world's airwaves, Cerwall says it almost doubled between Q2 2012 and Q2 2013 - with mobile data traffic expected to grow by 12 times between 2012 and 2018.

Mobile broadband subscriptions grew 150 million, to 1.8 billion - representing a 45% year-on-year growth rate.

Cerwall says, from Africa and Asia to Europe and America, there is continued strong momentum for smartphone uptake. Ericsson found that around 55% of all mobile phones sold in Q2 2013 were smartphones, compared to around 40% for the full year 2012 and about 50% in Q1 2013.

"Of all mobile phone subscriptions, around 25% are associated with smartphones, leaving considerable room for further uptake."

And while next-generation mobile technology - long-term evolution (LTE) - may currently be driving data growth primarily in Japan, Korea and the US, Cerwall says a shift is starting to take place throughout the rest of the world too.

"LTE subscriptions are set to reach two billion worldwide by 2018 and, according to the Global Mobile Suppliers Association, LTE-capable devices have reached 1 000 in number."

In Q2 2013, Wideband Code Division Multiple Access and High Speed Packet Access subscriptions grew by about 75 million, while LTE subscriptions increased by around 25 million to 125 million, according to Ericsson. The total number of subscriptions capable of using GSM grew by 100 million, while GSM-only subscriptions declined by 10 million.

In line with the latest trends, says Cerwall, LTE will cover about 60% of the world's population by 2018, while GSM will cover over 90% (as opposed to the current 85%) and 3G will cover over 85% (from the 2012 coverage of less than 55%).

"The world's networks will never be ready. They continuously need to be updated - and the question remains, will they ever really be able to meet our requirements and expectations?"

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