If local telecoms harbingers are anything to go by, this could be the year South Africans' appetite for ubiquitous WiFi is finally satisfied, with industry pundits tagging 2014 as a watershed year for the wireless technology.
This comes as SA continues to see massive growth in mobile devices and the consequent requirement for an alternative means for connecting to the Internet - a need Cisco Systems identified as pivotal in 2012 already.
Wireless systems manufacturer Ruckus Wireless has dubbed 2014 "the breakout year for WiFi", citing research by Informa that predicts global public WiFi hotspot numbers will reach 5.8 million by 2015 - from 1.3 million in 2011 - marking a 350% increase.
In Africa alone, says Ruckus, initiatives like free WiFi for Rwanda's Kigali and the City of Tshwane, as well as Google's Project Link to bring faster connectivity to Africa, indicate 2014 is set to be a turning point for WiFi.
"Mobile data growth is a key factor here, where it is estimated that 1.9 billion WiFi devices will hit the networks next year and global mobile data traffic is expected to reach 16.84 million terabytes by 2014," says Michael Fletcher, sales director for Ruckus Wireless sub-Saharan Africa.
Ultimately, says Fletcher, consumers want access - and WiFi has proven to be a solution. "As a result, [this] is a growing industry - and finally the promise of what WiFi can provide is coming to the fore as consumers, enterprises and operators become more aware of the possibilities that this spectrum provides."
Formative factors
World Wide Worx MD Arthur Goldstuck says many factors are coming together in 2014 that suggest it will be a breakthrough year for WiFi in SA.
"We are seeing municipal initiatives in Cape Town and Pretoria, the ANC has included free WiFi in its election manifesto, WiFi offload is being taken seriously by mobile operators for the first time, and Internet service providers are looking to WiFi to differentiate their services."
Goldstuck notes, however, that this "tipping point" cannot be extrapolated to the African continent as a whole. "Each country is different, and the dynamics of use, take-up and accelerating deployment are different in every centre, let alone each country."
Ovum analyst Richard Hurst forecasts "significant growth" in WiFi hotspots in both public and enterprise arenas - with most of the growth coming from the mobile and fixed-line operators "as they have banality and need to roll out WiFi".
Africa Analysis analyst Dobek Pater is cautiously optimistic about the extent of WiFi metamorphosis SA can expect this year: "I agree that we will see a greater movement towards the employment of WiFi as a technology, but I am not sure this is going to be a watershed year. The watershed may be in terms of the thinking of service providers in terms of deployment of WiFi (their attitudes towards it) and plans defined going forward."
Spiwe Chireka, telecoms analyst at IDC, foresees a WiFi breakout in 2014 - driven by the growth in mobile data usage coupled with maturity of fixed-mobile convergence (FMC). "If we look at the mobile service providers in SA, most (if not all) of them are bundling WiFi with mobile offerings as FMC and with that, the growth in mobile data usage will also drive WiFi."
The F word
Despite the generally optimistic outlook on the actual growth of WiFi, some analysts are more cautious when speaking to the likelihood of free WiFi.
Chireka says: "We are not so bullish about free WiFi being as widespread in SA. WiFi is a key money-spinner for service providers in SA and, therefore, the service is still 'niche', so to speak.
"With the new broadband policy punting nationwide free WiFi access, I reckon the investment into high-quality pervasive and low-cost/free WiFi lies with the government through its national broadband network plans."
Pater says Africa will definitely improve, because there is very little WiFi being employed as a commercial technology at present. SA, he says, is probably the largest market in sub-Saharan Africa, based on Africa Analysis research.
However, Pater sees the growth as being gradual. "I think we are likely to see more WiFi being introduced by the cellcos (and other third parties) for mobile data offload than as hotspots (especially free hotspots).
"Allan Knott-Craig Junior has his venture, trying to work with some of the metros to deploy WiFi (especially in underserved areas) and one of the large operators providing the back-end for these networks. However, seeing how there is government involvement, I am not convinced that we will see significant growth this year; more gradual evolution."
Pater notes that while there are a number of other projects on the go, at the end of the day WiFi requires funding by some or other party - "and few private sector companies feel particularly charitable".
Hurst says while he foresees a rise in the notion of free WiFi services, "we also expect to see some innovative pricing strategies form the various players and, while the service may not be entirely free, I think the key will be value for money on the part of the end-user".
Goldstuck paints a more consumer-friendly picture, saying SA's free WiFi scenario is improving almost by the day. He says data costs are falling and there is an imperative for WiFi to be free.
Offload advantage
Ruckus predicts 2014 will hail the "first true 3G offload to WiFi in Africa", with many countries (Kenya and SA included) looking to this as a viable option - a notion analysts have long advocated as a solution to SA's increasing data demand.
Goldstuck says 3G offload to WiFi is not only a viable option, "but a necessary strategy as data demand intensifies".
He noted in August that SA's service providers had long talked about WiFi offload, but said they had been able to stave it off while they maximised the return from their data networks. At the time, Goldstuck predicted service providers would in future come under intense pressure, with spread of long-term evolution and growing smartphone penetration.
Pater says building blocks are patently being put in place and he sees WiFi for offload deployment starting to take place this year. "Vodacom has been testing this concept since last year and MTN is also looking into it. Some third parties are looking at pre-deploying WiFi in strategic public locations (for example shopping centres) to offer this infrastructure to mobile operators."
Hurst says offload "will most certainly become a reality [this year]" - noting that a number of operators have already started to move in that direction.
"The notion of [3G to WiFi] offload has moved from being seen as a cannibalisation of revenues, to being an important item on the deployment agendas of operators."
He says mobile network operators will use the service to cater for the increased mobile demand, while fixed-line operators will deploy WiFi to retain existing customers - and integrated operators will use WiFi to meet both objectives."