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Where to next for Webolution?

Lezette Engelbrecht
By Lezette Engelbrecht, ITWeb online features editor
South Africa, 13 Mar 2009

In celebrating 20 years since the World Wide Web's conception, thinking inevitably turns to which technological innovations or socio-economic developments will drive the next age in the Web's evolution.

Kelly Ledger, product development manager at MWeb, predicts smarter information retrieval and processing techniques will change the way people interact with Web technology. “As users network more widely with less complicated interfaces, the Internet and its applications will grow in complexity and intelligence, increasing the impact and availability of, as Google likes to refer to it, the 'moment of relevance'.”

This reflects World Wide Web creator Tim Berners-Lee's vision of the 'semantic Web', which involves computers understanding and analysing user requests, bringing greater relevance, speed and accuracy.

“The semantic Web is the cornerstone, I believe, of creating a more intelligent Internet experience,” says Ledger. “If the Internet itself understands how it is put together it is in a better position to get you, the user, the information you want exactly when you want it.”

Using the Web as a source of information has become so natural it is difficult to imagine conducting daily activities without it. Gartner principal research analysts Fernando Elizalde and Amanda Sabia say the consumer has become “addicted” to going to the Web for information, whether it is to learn more about a specific topic or to research commerce opportunities that lead to business transactions.

They add that more recently, people access the Web to find personal content in social networks and for entertainment purposes, evidenced by the rise of video and broadcasting sites such as YouTube, and social platforms like Facebook, MySpace and Bebo.

Richard Hurst, programme manager for communications, Africa at IDC, predicts the current content experience will become increasingly richer as bandwidth starts to boom across the globe. “The next stage of Web development will be the linking of content and communities with the nascent features emerging in the new wave of social media such as the much touted Facebook, Twitter, Flickr and even SlideShare.”

Networking everybody

While one of the most lauded features of the Web is its apparent democratic nature, barriers to access still exist. But as the main source of Web access moves from being computer-based to mobile-based, this is beginning to change.

Bronwen Kausch, vice-chairperson of the SA chapter of the Internet Society (Isoc-Za), believes the advent of Internet access on mobile phones may be the best immediate solution to the current digital divide.

“If history has taught us anything, it's that technology has a way of finding people no matter where they are,” says Kausch. This is reflected in the increasing use of mobile phones to access the Web, especially in developing countries.

Ledger feels mobile phones can be credited with the incredible growth of connectivity in Africa. “There are 48 million people in SA with 38 million cellphones keeping people in constant contact. This has changed the nature of our game and you will see more and more Web sites and services designed purely for the mobile phone.”

If history has taught us anything, it's that technology has a way of finding people no matter where they are.

Bronwen Kausch, vice-chair, Isoc-Za

Barry Gill, product development specialist at Mimecast, says the cellular industry will most likely provide the technologies that will eventually break access barriers. “But to do so they require better network coverage, more feature-rich applications on handheld devices and more affordable devices to gain the critical mass,” he adds.

Up where it belongs

ICT programme manager at Frost & Sullivan, Birgitta Cederstrom, says the introduction of Web 2.0 opened up new possibilities for sharing information through networking sites while also appealing to another sector: business. “What started as a sharing portal for people is today also accepted by business as a place to post their latest product Web casts and company information,” says Cederstrom.

One of the major future Web trends Cederstrom foresees is companies saving costs by using cloud computing for storage, especially small to medium enterprises. “Computing currently has challenges around security but when looking forward at the next boom area in the Web, I predict that cloud computing will be it.”

Gill agrees, adding that the Web is already pivotal in providing decentralised, failure-resistant services to customers. “In five years' time the trend of moving data processing from the customer networks off into specialist cloud computing facilities will no longer be visionary but pretty much standard.”

The Web has done for society today what the Renaissance did for Europe. It has provided an inquisitive and creative species with a tool for doing what it does best: relate.

Kelly Ledger, product development manager, MWeb

Since its inception, an attraction of the Web has been its open, unrestricted access to information. But this freedom also brings the potential for invasion of privacy, identity fraud, and the spread of harmful content. “The Internet's greatest attribute is, ironically, also its greatest problem: the rapid distribution of information means that online security companies have to work exceptionally hard to try and curb the overenthusiastic hackers and cyber criminals out there,” says Ledger.

“The risks are high but so are the rewards, users of online services have to make themselves aware of their environments and realise that their online lives, like the homes they live in, need to be protected and managed.”

The great enabler

In future, the Web's potential as a tool for getting countries, organisations and willing individuals to work together will be increasingly realised.

“Just like the printing press led to a new age of enlightenment, the Internet has created a way for people to highlight issues and act on them,” says Kausch. “The only way we will change our behaviour is through education and the Internet is the fastest way to deliver information, educate communities and enlighten the collective.”

Ledger believes the Web has done for society today what the Renaissance did for Europe. “It has provided an inquisitive and creative species with a tool for doing what it does best: relate.”

Cederstrom agrees that the Web plays a major role in connecting and enabling people. “The world is smaller since the advent of the Web. I think it will allow people to grow closer.”

One of the most significant features of the Web, says Kausch, is the awareness of our position in something bigger. “Kids now see themselves as part of a global village rather than a small community. With that comes the realisation that they have a responsibility for something more than just themselves.”

The future of the Web: Top predictions

* Bronwen Kausch, vice-chairperson of Isoc-Za: “Regulatory harmonisation is something that is becoming increasingly important as more and more business- and mission-critical operations are delivered over the Web. Cohesive and collective policy-making is also essential when looking at social upliftment across borders and trading zones.”

* Richard Hurst, programme manager for communications, Africa at IDC: “The next crucial stage of WWW development will be the harnessing of the mobile platforms, which users will increasingly seek out. In essence, mobile will be a key facet of Internet development in the near future.”

* Birgitta Cederstrom, ICT programme manager at Frost & Sullivan: “Today the latest buzz word is cloud computing and Frost & Sullivan really believes it will be the way forward to store information, especially for SMEs. Due to the cost savings it offers, it might also attract larger companies to investigate the solution.”

* Kelly Ledger, product development manager at MWeb: “I see societies - national to niche - connected through a selection of favoured aggregated interfaces. The Web will offer up ways for users to group and control their online personas so it becomes easier and more meaningful than it is now. Because of this, networking and business opportunities will thrive.”

In five years' time, the trend of moving data processing from the customer networks off into specialist cloud computing facilities will no longer be visionary but pretty much standard.

Barry Gill, product development manager, Mimecast

* Barry Gill, product development specialist at Mimecast: “Undoubtedly software-as-a-service is one of the biggest trends to impact Web-based service offerings and is likely to be the one with the greatest long-term impact. As customers and consumers push computing off into the Web, they will be driving link speed growth, backbone growth and data centre growth, while allowing themselves to reduce their own costs and complexity.”

* Fernando Elizalde and Amanda Sabia, principal research analysts at Gartner: “The actual physical connection to the Web - the broadband connection - has been on the rise and at the end of 2008, 20% of all households globally had a broadband connection. This is on pace to increase to 25% by 2012. In conjunction with the rise of broadband connections is the speed of the connection, which is especially important as the content on the Web becomes more complex, moving from text to video.”

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