BMI-TechKnowledge reports revenue generated last year in the South African telecommunications sector stood at R103 billion, or 6% of the country's R1.65 trillion gross domestic product (GDP). This contribution is unchanged from three years ago.
The research firm this week released the findings of its latest report, "The South African Telecommunications Market: New Laws, New Rules".
It predicts the telecoms market will reach R140 billion by 2011, or a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for mobile and fixed-line revenue of 8%. This rate is higher than the forecast GDP growth rate of between 5% and 6%.
BMI-T says the revenue CAGR for the mobile market should be 9%, with the fixed-line and fixed mobile markets at 5%.
GDP rise
Tony Twine, a director of independent economics consultancy Econometrix, says the country's GDP (the total value of the goods and services generated within a country's national borders) increased to R1.65 trillion in the past year.
"So it looks to me that telecoms still represents 6% of the country's GDP, at R103 billion," he says.
In its 2004 annual report, Telkom, the country's only fully operational fixed-line service provider, stated telecoms made up 6% of GDP, which placed the value of the sector at around R86 billion. The group has not indicated if it has changed its view on the GDP contribution telecoms makes.
Telkom's revenue during the last financial year was R47 billion, which means it contributes 2.7% to the country's GDP. This, however, is a slight decrease in its overall contribution in 2004 when it contributed just over 3%.
BMI-T director Brian Neilson says the overall telecoms market should grow slightly faster due to a number of factors, such as the predicted continuing rise in the number of mobile subscribers and the increase in data transmission on fixed and mobile lines.
"There are a number of scenarios that could impact the growth of the market, such as the regulatory environment and the rise in data services and a decline in voice services."
The mobile market has not reached saturation point yet and continues to trickle up, he adds.
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