2010 is the year of the Internet tsunami, with companies like MWeb shaping the way people access the Internet by releasing the first uncapped Internet offerings, and changing the way Internet service providers (ISPs) offer their services.
So says Arthur Goldstuck, MD of World Wide Worx, who spoke recently at the Information Technology Association's (ITA's) inaugural annual conference at Gallagher Estate. The conference highlighted the way in which ICT has been used to assist government in achieving its top five priorities: health, education, rural development, crime and corruption, and unemployment.
Goldstuck attributed the dramatic reduction in costs for data to the arrival of the Seacom cable. He added that the new cables landing in SA will also ultimately reduce the price of broadband in the country. “The growth of the Internet has been relatively stagnant in SA until the recent arrival of the undersea cables.”
He said that in 2007, SA had bandwidth capacity of around 80Gbps, and in 2010 it has increased to 5.4Tbps. By 2011, it is expected to increase to 14Tbps and by 2012 an estimated 17Tbps. “We're seeing that broadband capacity has increased by 150% from 2008.”
However, Goldstuck pointed out that SA is still lagging in growth compared to other countries on the continent, adding: “The penetration rate in SA has been disastrous.” He said countries like Morocco, Egypt and Nigeria are far ahead of SA in terms of bandwidth capacity and Internet penetration.
He argued that to further the growth of the Internet in SA, there need to be fewer regulations and restrictions which act as obstacles in creating a more liberal market - one in which technology can be licensed in a way that makes it easy for people to use. He added that competition among ISPs will drive growth in the market.
Mobile nation
According to Goldstuck, the growth of mobile Internet usage has increased by 88% versus the 21% growth for ADSL. He attributed this to competition between mobile Internet providers.
Goldstuck said while mobile access is here, the use of cellphones does not add up to much Internet traffic. “Of the 3.5 million people using WAP, around 500 000 are actually using it properly.”
He noted that the current growth of mobile Internet use is also due to the increased usage of smartphones.
Goldstuck highlighted that mobile access still beats ADSL as corporate entities turn to the technology to mobilise the workforce, allowing them to access the Internet from remote destinations or from home. He explained that 3G is now the primary form of Internet access in SA.
“There is a ceiling of growth for ADSL consumers as it is based on the number of landlines being used. In 2000, there were 5.4 million landlines and the number of landlines has dropped since,” said Goldstuck, adding that this contributes to the slow growth of ADSL.
“The growth in fixed line broadband comes from small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) upgrading to ADSL, as more people are able to access the Internet off of a single connection,” said Goldstuck. He estimated that an additional 15% of SMEs are able to connect an additional five users to the Internet.
Lacking education
“There needs to be a vision of an educated user base,” said Goldstuck, adding that an experience curve needs to be factored in. He noted there is a five-year learning curve before users gain confidence with using the Internet.
“Experience emerges as a combination of experience, comfort with using the medium, confidence in the reliability of the medium, and confidence in the trust of the medium,” said Goldstuck.
“Online retailers were the early-bird warning, as people unfamiliar with the Internet weren't confident enough to use the services.”
He added that by 2015, only 20 million people will have undergone the five-year learning curve involved in learning how to use the Internet - less than 15% of the population.
“By 2020, we expect a higher portion of users on the Internet with a projected 20% of the population using Internet services.” He believes the changes will transform people and companies, as entities change the way they operate to provide services over the Internet.
While growth seems to be happening on several fronts, Goldstuck questions a clear way forward: “2010 is the year of Internet take-off, but is there a clear flight path?”
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