Climate data connects the dots

Climate change is happening, but many of the people to be hardest hit have never even heard of the concept.

They do, however, see what it's doing to their crops, rivers, dams and cattle. Residents of the Ventersdorp farm Goedgevonden, for example, have seen their water supplies dwindle and unpredictable weather disrupt farming activities.

“Our small dam used to be full throughout the winter, but you don't see that now. By June, you don't see water there - we have to go buy 20-litre bottles from the town nearby,” says Augustus Mogoai, a previous member of the Goedgevonden Land and Development Committee.

Another committee member, Matthews Manzana, adds that any kind of planning is near impossible. “From 1991 to 2010, the rain would fall in summer, and the winter would have no rain. Now, the rainfall doesn't have a summer or a winter.”

Yet, climatologists and other researchers are well aware of why these changes are happening. SA's observed climate data is robust, and is essential for predicting future climate change, says Dr Emma Archer van Garderen, principal scientist in the CSIR's Climate Studies, Modelling & Environmental Health unit.

If this data was used to support regional planning and policy-making, it could help better equip communities like Goedgevonden for the changes they're experiencing.

One project, the South African Risk and Vulnerability Atlas (Sarva), was designed to help facilitate such exchange. Created by the Department of Science and Technology and managed by the CSIR, it serves as an online portal where the latest information is accessible to various stakeholders, to support the development of adaptation policies.

Its geospatial database recently went live, and allows registered users to contribute their own content, including simple file and data uploads, Web page development, blogs, news events, and complex map creation.

According to Sarva, this allows collaboration, sharing, and content management to enable users to create and manage discussions, blogs, community pages, and the like.

Archer van Garderen says linking sector policies and strategies, and revising them for climate risk and future climate change, is vital for the country's ability to adapt.

“Sarva can help make key information accessible, such as climate impact studies, for mutual learning between municipalities.”

This will become increasingly important as regional problems intensify. “Southern Africa is warming up at about two times the global average rate, and is projected to become drier in the western half,” says Dr Bob Scholes, research group leader in the CSIR's Ecosystem Processes and Dynamics division. “SA is already too warm, and too dry, for many purposes.”

This includes agriculture and forestry, which Scholes notes SA already doesn't have an ideal climate for. “Marginal mean annual rainfall is around 600mm, which is the lower cut-off point for agriculture. If it gets much drier, it's going to be very problematic.”

Similarly, the country is already over the temperature optimum for farming, and if it gets any hotter, says Scholes, conditions are going to get worse. He's quick to point out, however, that changes will vary according to region, with some areas becoming drier, while others grow wetter.

When it comes to the severity of the impacts, and people's ability to adapt, much depends on the knowledge and resources they have available, says Scholes, meaning those already ill-equipped will suffer the most.

For SA, the biggest issues include water supply, disasters such as floods and droughts, agriculture, biodiversity, and human health, which will have varying effects on different regions and populations, according to Scholes.

In Sarva's launch document, science and technology minister Naledi Pandor writes that “Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate vulnerability and change, a situation aggravated by the interaction of 'multiple stresses', occurring at various levels, and low adaptive capacity”.

You see livestock becoming sick and dying because of the weather and wind.

Johannes Modukanele, resident, Goedgevonden

In Goedgevonden, the interlinking vulnerabilities of climate change are already being felt.

One resident, Johannes Modukanele, says the erratic rainfall patterns have a made it difficult for subsistence farmers to harvest, and affected the health of their cattle.

“Sometimes we get strong winds; it mostly comes in the spring, and even when it rains, we get windy rains. It becomes very cold and we've had lots of lightning.

“When the wind blows, chemicals from the mines come into the whole area. You see livestock becoming sick and dying because of the weather and wind.”

Archer van Garderen, who works throughout South and southern Africa, says many farmers are noticing changes in particular parameters. “Long before it became a topic of national interest, farmers in areas such as the arid Suid Bokkeveld, for example, were observing what are now evident significant trends.

“This is, after all, their livelihood.”

At a recent talk to celebrate World Environment Day, environmental affairs minister Edna Molewa emphasised that the impacts of climate change are the number one threat to SA's long-term sustainable development, economic growth and quality of life.

“Climate change is a threat to our food security and ability to meet our developmental objectives as a country,” she said.

But Scholes notes that government is already working on policies to cope with these challenges. The Climate Change Response Policy is nearing completion and the Climate Change White Paper will be presented to Cabinet later this year, according to Molewa.

“The country is busy developing adaptation policies both at the national level, and sectoral plans,” notes Archer van Garderen. “Of particular importance here are both the development of robust sectoral plans, and the development of strategies that are coordinated between different departments, as well as monitoring and evaluation of effective adaptation response.”

Scholes believes there are three overarching requirements for SA to develop adequate adaptation policies: awareness, options, and tests of options.

“First, you have to learn about the problem - who it affects, how and where. Second, you need a set of options, and finally, an analytical framework that allows you to screen the options against the problems, looking for those solutions that do the best and are the most robust to the uncertainties.”

He explains that while rural farmers are very aware that 'things aren't the way they used to be', most of them are not very well informed about climate change. “Many who are, are paradoxically quite sceptical of scientists,” he adds.

To bridge the gap between what scientists know and what the public understands will require “a steady stream of credible information, presented in terms that are understandable without dumbing down the inherent complexity and uncertainty,” says Scholes.

He adds that SA is heavily involved in both adaptation and mitigation, with the line between the two growing increasingly blurred. “It used to be a case of 'developed countries mitigate and developing countries adapt', but now developed nations also have to adapt and emerging economies also have to mitigate. It becomes much more interlinked - you can't separate them out anymore.”

According to Scholes, research in these areas is moving away from the actual climate (although studies in this area are ongoing) to working out the current and future impacts.

This involves testing out alternatives, and working with everything from agricultural and health workers to human scientists. “They've all become part of policy-making, so suddenly the climate field is full of economists and sociologists, but they're just as important to the process.”

Negotiations around climate change are likely to see increased local interest as Durban hosts the Seventeenth Conference of the Parties (COP 17) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

There are no great expectations for the conference, however, and Scholes says he's fairly pessimistic about the likelihood of any significant progress.

Suddenly the climate field is full of economists and sociologists, but they're just as important to the process.

Dr Bob Scholes, research group leader, CSIR's Ecosystem Processes and Dynamics

“What's on the table in terms of combating climate change is nowhere near adequate. There has to be a globally binding deal, and the disputes between China and the US are not likely to be resolved any time soon.”

Seeing as a legally binding agreement at COP 17 seems out of reach for now, focus will increasingly shift to adaptation, as people begin facing the reality of predicted changes.

“Climate change is happening and it's a case of adapt or die,” says Scholes, noting that adaptation to shifts in climate are not that different from adaptation that takes place normally. “It's about doing things better and becoming more efficient.”

It's in these adaptation strategies where the strengths of communities are likely to emerge, as they collaborate to find solutions, sharing information, ideas, or simple hard work. As another Goedgevonden resident said when talking about their environmental challenges: ”About all these things, we have to be together.”