New research is using global data on emerging infectious diseases to track outbreaks and improve responses to dangerous pathogens.
The paper, "Using network theory to identify the causes of disease outbreaks of unknown origin", uses the wealth of data available online to improve methods of tracking and predicting new infectious diseases.
Researchers from various fields, including emerging disease ecology, biomathematics, computational biology and bioinformatics, have joined together to create a method that uses online data to determine where attention is most needed. The research used data - including symptoms, fatality rate and time of year - collected at the point of 125 disease outbreaks that have been attributed to already known infectious diseases.
The results showed that certain emerging diseases, such as the lethal Nipah virus, showed very different patterns and clusters from established diseases such as malaria. This enabled the research team to provide probable diagnoses for 'mystery diseases' created by unknown pathogens. The methodology will provide an advantage in predicting and preventing new pandemic diseases.
"This application of network theory is exciting not only because it provides a fast, affordable method for associating undiagnosed outbreaks with a set of most likely known diseases, but perhaps most importantly because it provides a method for researchers to work with public health experts to identify potentially novel pathogen threats, as these agents will not fall into any of the known disease clusters and therefore can be easily identified," says lead author of the research, Dr Tiffany Bogich of Princeton University.
Previous cases of infectious diseases highlight the need for swift identification of new threats. For example, when the Nipah virus emerged among farm workers and pigs in Malaysia, it was initially thought to be Japanese encephalitis. Identification of new, highly infectious diseases at a very early stage may be instrumental in assisting public health officials to contain the spread and prevent global pandemics.
"This research may be critical to rapidly deciding which outbreaks are something completely novel and have pandemic potential, rather than a repeat outbreak of a known pathogen," says Dr Peter Daszak, corresponding author and president of EcoHealth Alliance. "It allows public health agencies to target their resources in the most efficient way, and helps protect us from new emerging diseases, which often erupt in remote corners of the Earth where it is sometimes very difficult to obtain vital information, let alone biological samples to test for various pathogens."
EcoHealth Alliance, a non-profit organisation uniting the goals of disease eradication and wildlife conservation, has launched "The Sicki Project", which curates, reviews and expands global health community data to improve predictive models of disease emergence. The project also hosts a scientific wiki that enables researchers to review events and contribute resources.
The tools may have uses beyond targeting new pandemics, adds Daszak. "Another aspect that we are looking at is using this tool to pinpoint possible bio-terrorism. Such an act will produce immediate symptoms that are unusual, and would likely light up on our network analysis."
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