Digital cinema and high-definition DVD sales are expected to fuel worldwide consumer spending on filmed entertainment through 2011, PricewaterhouseCoopers said in its latest five-year outlook.
The report, "Global Entertainment and Media Outlook: 2007-2011", forecasts average annual growth of 4.9% to $103.3 billion from $81.2 billion in 2006, with the Asia Pacific region growing fastest at an average annual pace of 6.8%.
Download-to-own services are expected to provide a relatively small but rapidly growing revenue stream in the US, Europe, Africa and the Middle East, while piracy will take a bite off revenue in Asia and Latin America, the report said.
In the US, digital cinema, with its superior images and ease of distribution, will reinvigorate the box office to the tune of $11.7 billion by 2011, the report said.
US box office grosses hit an all-time high of $9.53 billion in 2004 and are recovering from a three-year downturn.
The proliferation of digital cinema - expected to reach 40% of all US screens by the middle of next decade - will shorten theatrical runs as studios push for wider releases and bring DVDs to market sooner to benefit from film ad campaigns.
Movie theatre owners, long opposed to shortening the DVD release window, may continue to resist this strategy, which they believe cuts into box office revenues, but "digital distribution will minimise the potential adverse impact of a quicker home video release," the report said.
Digital 3D screens will have an impact later in the decade, as the number of available screens grows enough to allow wide releases of 3D films now in the production pipeline for 2009.
"One reason we think it will have an impact is that it doesn't compete with home video," said Mary Shelton Rose, a partner in PricewaterhouseCoopers' Entertainment and Media Practice.
Sales of physical DVDs will fall as alternate distribution channels grow but will continue to dominate all types of US home video sell-through, which will grow at an average rate of 5.1% to $21.9 billion by 2011.
High-definition DVD sales - slowed by pricey hardware and a format war between Sony's Blu Ray and Toshiba's HD DVD - will accelerate toward the end of the forecast period but will not produce the boomlet that some studios were expecting, Shelton Rose said.
US in-store DVD rentals, the forecast's weak spot, will decline at an average of 1.1% to end 2011 at $7.1 billion, versus $7.5 billion in 2006, PricewaterhouseCoopers said.
The growth of the US online rental subscription business dominated by Blockbuster and Netflix was expected to more than compensate for in-store losses. Online rental revenue is expected to rise, on average, by 23.1% a year, to $3.4 billion by 2011, with subscribers reaching 20 million.
The prices for download-to-own movies are expected to start falling in 2009 while sales expand rapidly to 80 million movies at an average price of $7 per film by 2011.
Total spending on download-to-own movies will grow to an estimated $560 million from $32 million in 2006, while sales of download-to-own TV shows are expected to rise to $600 million, the report said.
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