CA forecasts online threats

Johannesburg, 10 Jan 2008

Online gamers, social networks and high-profile events, like the US presidential election and the Beijing Olympics, are among the top potential targets for online attacks this year.

That's according to the latest Internet Security Outlook Report from CA.

The study, based on data compiled by CA's Global Security Advisor researchers, features Internet security predictions for 2008 and also reports on trends from 2007.

"Cyber-criminals go where opportunity lies and take advantage of any and all vulnerabilities," says Brian Grayek, VP of product management for CA's Internet security business unit.

"While security protection is becoming better at detecting malware, online thieves are getting smarter and stealthier in the way they attack our computers."

The digital footprints that are collected and stored whenever we use the Internet are incredibly valuable to marketers and online criminals, adds Grayek.

"We've seen malware evolve from a cottage industry to a full-fledged fraud business. It is now operating with business practices and development similar to legitimate software organisations. Our attitude about protecting our Internet privacy and the subsequent actions we take - whether at work or at play - can dramatically alter our online safety," he explains.

2008 risks

CA's online security predictions are:

1) Bots will dominate in 2008: The number of computers infected by botnets will increase sharply this year. In an effort to become harder to detect, bot-herders are changing their tactics and decentralising via peer-to-peer architectures. They are increasingly using instant messaging as their main vehicle for spreading botnets.

2) Smarter malware: There are new levels of sophistication in malware. Malware will target virtualised computers, and increasing use of concealment techniques will help criminals mask their activities.

3) Gamers under fire: Gamers are already prized targets, and stealing account credentials continues to be a primary objective of online criminals. Gamers historically are more concerned with optimising their PCs for high performance rather than for tight security. In 2008, virtual assets will equal real world money for Internet criminals.

4) Social networking sites in the crosshairs: Social networking sites will become increasingly popular and, as a result, more vulnerable. The large number of potential victims and relatively small concern for computer security make these sites a windfall for cyber thieves.

5) Key dates for opportunity: The US presidential election and the 2008 Olympics in Beijing offer high-profile opportunities for destructive attacks and corruption, or outright theft of information.

6) Web 2.0 services and sites will come under targeted attacks: While it is relatively easy to implement Web 2.0 services, it can be quite challenging to configure them to be totally secure. Therefore, many Internet sites using these services are easy targets with little outward indication that a site is compromised.

7) Windows Vista at risk: As businesses and consumers buy new computers, Vista's market share will grow. Although it is designed as Microsoft's most secure operating system, 20 vulnerabilities were reported in 2007, according to the National Institute of Standards and Technology. As more people use it, the more attackers will target it.

8) Mobile devices will still be safe: Mobile devices are still safe, despite rumours of mobile malware. Smartphones and other mobile devices will not be a real opportunity for criminals in 2008. Proof-of-concept malware for mobile devices has not yet translated into any meaningful attacks. The only significant mobile vulnerability reported in 2007 was to the Apple iPhone.