The strengthening position of Linux and open source in the local and global arena is not leading to attrition of Microsoft`s market share, which still has a huge hold on the worldwide market, a study on the Linux open source software and services market in SA has revealed.
BMI-TechKnowledge research manager Roy Blume told journalists yesterday that Linux has captured a small share of global paid client operating environment shipments since 2000, a trend expected to continue into 2007.
Shipments of Linux as a client-operating environment, he said, have been growing swiftly since novice-ready commercial versions of this software were introduced in the late1990s.
However, Linux market share is increasing at a slower rate due to the overwhelming position held by Microsoft`s pervasively deployed client-operating environment products.
In contrast, Linux has shown strong growth in worldwide server operating environment shipments since 2000, but again at the expense of other vendors, with little impact on Microsoft`s market share, Blume stated.
In terms of the South African market, the study shows that Microsoft did lose about 7% of its market share in the shipment of personal computers between 2003 and 2004, while Linux strengthened in this segment, increasing its market share from 0.5% to 2.8%.
Server shipments in SA by operating system, between 2003 and 2004, have been consistent with international trends, with Microsoft maintaining its leading market share of 77%, and Linux increasing its share from 13.8% to 16.5%.
Packaged software
Blume noted that the Linux gain in this segment was at the expense of Unix, whose market share slipped from 5.4% to 3.3%.
He also highlighted a similar pattern in the South African packaged software environment, where Linux has a much bigger impact on vendors other than Microsoft.
"Linux is not taking customers away from Microsoft in this segment - perhaps potential Microsoft customers," Blume commented.
However, he said, Linux is expected to generate most of its revenue in the services environment, as it is relatively cheaper than Microsoft in this area.
The compound annual growth rate of revenue in the South African services market is estimated at 42% between 2004 and 2005, as opposed to 8% growth for the overall market. However, Blume warned that the Linux growth is off a low base.
BMI-T estimates that the size of the open source software-related services market in SA was R204 million in 2004, and expects this to reach R1.162 billion by 2009. It says the market for services around GNU/Linux, open source software and free software is growing fast, but will maintain a rather limited size in the foreseeable future, when measured against the overall South African IT services expenditure.
Blume noted that systems integrators on the whole remain more cautious towards open source, although a number of players have started building offerings.
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