The telecoms clock is ticking

When is a deadline not a deadline? When it`s the DOC`s 2011 deadline for local loop unbundling. In theory, it`s a Red Letter Day for South Africa, the day that Telkom`s stranglehold is broken on the last mile between the local exchange and the plug in the wall of the each business and consumer.

In theory, it`s the end of an era of monopoly, fixed-line telecoms services to the end-user. In theory. In reality it`s so dangerously vague and open to manipulation that big red warning lights are flashing.

Even though there is a deadline, there is little in the way of specific milestones that need to be met. What, exactly, must happen before 2011? No one knows, because it`s not published in black and white.

Here I must also note that the DOC`s strategic plan has the most vague milestones on this subject and the online document is so large it is impossible to download on a South African broadband connection. It doesn`t get more ironic than that.

Telkom can put in place processes and discussion documents and set in motion the machinery of unbundling, but not actually do anything concrete until 2011 rolls around. And that`s in four years time; four more years to continue growing and cementing its business while its putative competitors claw their way onto the stage.

And in the meanwhile, we head towards the 2010 Soccer World Cup, a global media-fest of billions of eyeballs wanting pictures, sounds and news. We have thousands of local businesses that hope to be capitalising on this fiesta of tourists and exposure. The bandwidth demands are going to be massive - during the 2006 World Cup in Germany, T-Mobile alone saw its traffic triple on match days. We`re looking at spikes in demand of several hundred percent on links that are already resembling the turnstiles at a Kaiser Chiefs match. We`re going to be looking at massive needs for new connections from any number of businesses that will be scaling up in the months leading up to the event.

Government has made major commitments that our network infrastructure will be ready to handle World Cup broadcast, telephone and Internet demands. The nation as a whole will lose enormous face if we drop this ball. And this in addition to the everyday requirements from consumers and businesses that will continue to use their preferred connectivity and capacity to continue interacting despite being wholly unrelated to activities surrounding 2010.

What we need is an explicit roadmap from the government and Icasa in terms of what must happen by 2010, and more importantly what will be done as we approach the deadline for local loop unbundling in 2011.

There are a few things that can be done right now which can put us in a stronger position come 2010. The first is carrier preselect, where a company notifies Telkom which voice provider it wants to handle its long-distance voice calls. Telkom programs the exchange to which the company connects, and automatically routes voice calls to that service provider (that offers lower prices, more services or specific value-add). It`s not hard to do, and it creates a competitive environment in voice, which creates a climate for culture change in our incumbent telco. We need this broadly available before the end of 2007.

Then we need to have cost-based interconnects, where data interconnects are paid for according to what they cost to provide, not how much the market is squeezed to pay. Again, not true competition, but a valuable growth of "competitive environment" culture.

We also need specific, investor-friendly policy direction from the Department of Communications, specifically in the landing of undersea cables. The more broadband we have, the more we`ll need. The more low-cost overseas bandwidth we have, the more the market will grow to use it. We`ll need every piece of fibre we can get our hands on if we`re going to be able to get the gigabits of high-definition TV to the global broadcasters. Again this must be sorted out before this year is out.

And then, by no later than the middle of next year, the local loop unbundling process must start - not in "policy" or "frameworks", but for real. Actual exchanges, with actual competitor equipment installed and running and providing services. There is an enormous amount of experience that will need to be gained by Telkom, by the independent Internet service providers, and by Icasa as we are faced with real-world problems and complications. We need to start confronting and dealing with them now in a phased approach, not in 2011.

We need to have a self-funded regulator by the end of 2008 that has enough resources to manage (and enforce) licences, free of the de facto control of the Department of Communications, which holds its purse strings (as well as vested interests in Telkom).

And by 2009 latest we need to have new cables landed, and turned on. Whether it`s Seacom, Infraco or WASC - or, better, all of them - we need time to iron out bugs and connect them into our various networks. We need to cut telecoms prices - but not by taking 10% off current prices. We need to cut them to 10% of current prices.

We only have 30-odd months to go until the cameras start rolling, and the eyes of the world are on us - and trying to book hotels, and find tourist information, and things to do when they get here, and ways to keep their partners occupied while they`re at the game, and places to eat, and who knows... maybe business opportunities in South Africa.

Come 2010, we need to have our boots polished, our faces scrubbed and our telecoms best foot forward, because if we`re going to stand a chance to make back the money we`re spending on the stadiums, we`re going to have to sell South Africa as a first-class, first-world, first-choice destination to holiday and to do business.