South Africa`s imminent telecommunications regulations are facilitating new forms of competition, layers and players in the telecoms market in general, including the possible convergence between fixed and mobile networks, says BMI-TechKnowledge telecoms analyst Richard Hurst.
Speaking at the Microsoft-HP Mobility Day in Johannesburg yesterday, Hurst said new regulations could also drive further convergence between voice and data services in future, facilitated by IP-based networks.
These, he noted, are market trends that are expected to facilitate the growth of mobile data revenues in SA.
In addition, new strategic relationships are being forged between financial institutions, operators, retailers, and technology solutions and service providers. Examples of this, Hurst stated, include MTN with Standard Bank, Absa with Telkom and Vodacom, Vodacom with HP, Microsoft, SAP and Accenture.
Also driving mobile data revenues is the emergence of virtual mobile operators like the ZCC Church with Orlando Pirates, and Kaiser Chiefs with Vodacom, as well as Virgin entering the market in co-operation with Cell C.
"By 2010, SA could have as many as 32 million (gross) mobile subscriber numbers, with a large number of those connected via GPRS, EDGE and 3G. In addition, new entrants in the wireless space like Sentech and WBS will see Internet connectivity increase via PC initially and later by mobile devices," Hurst said.
"New mobile devices will also be able to connect via Bluetooth, WiFi, CDMA and WiMAX in the future. Initiatives like VodafoneLive and MTN Loaded are stimulating mobile data revenues and are churning revenue away from WASPs."
In terms of technology trends in SA, Hurst anticipates the deployment and adoption of new browsing and messaging technologies and applications, as well as penetration of multiple-band and GPRS-, EDGE- and 3G-enabled and converged devices.
The country is also expected to see the roll-out of EDGE, 3G and future WiMAX networks, including high-speed mobile data cards, enabling PC Internet connectivity on these networks, some of which are dual 3G and GPRS cards.
Hurst also noted that SA would see the introduction and adoption of new generation technologies and the future incorporation of WiMAX (802.16) in Intel notebook PC chipsets, as is the case with wireless LAN (IEEE 802-11).
Commenting on the future of mobile applications in SA, he pointed out that greater co-operation between all the role players is likely. Users can expect to see increased speeds due to EDGE, while 3G and HSDPA will improve access via the Internet, and, in turn, facilitate the development of mobile applications.
The local market will also see increased functionality of devices, interoperable devices and platforms, end-user-friendly systems, an increase in "cyber-savvy" customers, and appropriate consumer awareness and education.
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