The country's over-regulated telecoms environment does not bode well for the second national operator (SNO) or the future of new technology, such as WiMax.
Speaking in the sidelines of a Moto4Africa conference, held in Zambia this week, BMI-TechKnowledge telecoms analyst Richard Hurst expressed concern that SA's regulatory constraints seem to be protecting the interests of entrenched telecoms entities and delaying the emergence of competition.
Hurst said the SNO has, due to countless delays, almost "missed the boat", and will most likely prove to be ineffectual as a competitor to fixed-line monopoly Telkom, which is using the additional time to further entrench its position of dominance.
"Whereas early predictions were the SNO was likely to take about 10% of Telkom's market, it now appears it may take as little as 5%, over a period of two years following its inception," he commented. "The SNO is going to have a really tough time getting into the market."
Information has emerged that the SNO may suffer further delays, with the implementation of wholesale services reportedly being pushed back until year-end. The group has thus far denied this, claiming that it is on track to launch wholesale services in the near future.
Unknown WiMax
Hurst also slated the telecoms regulator's approach for potentially hampering the introduction of WiMax to the local market, saying the technology remains "an unknown in Africa".
"We know everything there is to know about GSM, but that is not the case with WiMax. With WiMax, we don't even know how many eggs there are to count before they hatch."
Hurst stated that the Independent Communications Authority of SA (ICASA) has allocated the WiMax spectrum to the industry's "usual suspects" - Telkom, Sentech, the SNO and one or two of the underserviced area licensees.
"Unfortunately, ICASA has not adopted a 'use it or lose it' attitude, so those who have been allocated the WiMax spectrum are again free to employ delay tactics for any new entrants into the market."
For example, said Hurst, while the SNO has been allocated the WiMax spectrum, indications are that it is most likely to develop a CDMA platform and not even make use of its WiMax spectrum allocation.
"The implementation of the Electronic Communications Act could be the opportunity for ICASA to show the South African industry that it can effectively regulate. But we will have to wait and see."
Motorola's regional sales director for Sub-Saharan Africa, Stefano Mattiello, said SA faces the danger of falling behind other African countries if WiMax deployment is not allowed soon.
"The main issues are in the regulatory environment. Other African counties, such as Nigeria, are more advanced when it comes to WiMax roll-out."
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