The African broadband market remains in an embryonic stage, which implies there is still much uncertainty in the region regarding future prospects, Richard Hurst, BMI-TechKnowledge`s telecoms analyst told delegates at Motorola`s recent Moto4Africa conference in Zambia.
At the same time, visionary approaches are being adopted across the board from operators to service providers, he said, adding broadband services are still confined to high-density urban areas.
However, an increasing number of mobile data services are starting to appear. "A number of operators have launched GPRS services in countries such as Kenya and Tanzania, while Edge networks are appearing in countries such as Kenya and Ghana. Also, 3G services are emerging in SA, Egypt, Tunisia and Algeria," Hurst stated, adding Nigeria and the DRC are seeking to issue 3G licences.
Meanwhile, he stated, CDMA2000 1x and CDMA2000 1xEV-DO are gaining a greater footprint in the market.
"A handful of mobile operators are emerging to exploit the opportunities that exist in the African market and beyond. MTN is now operational in 21 countries covering a population of over 500 million. The trend is expected to continue as the larger operators begin to seek growth via acquisition," he said.
Market drivers
Hurst stated estimates place the number of WiMax pilots, as well as licensed and unlicensed projects across the continent, at about 50 operations, and growing daily.
Market drivers, he pointed out, include low penetration, high-local loop costs and subscription fees, formalised access to spectrum and the opportunity to offer voice services (VOIP). In contrast, inhibitors include low level of PC penetration and regulatory and government resistance (protection of incumbent interests), said Hurst.
Looking at possible future scenarios, Hurst predicted WiMax would emerge the technology of choice for wireless broadband, with between three million and six million connections at the end of 2010, while CDMA is expected to gain traction as a wireless local loop platform.
"From a user perspective, broadband is expected to replace dialup services as and when costs are aligned. Infrastructure sharing and local loop unbundling will be key to unlocking broadband in Africa," he said.
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