Hubert Wentzel, technology director at EOH Technology Consulting, says 10 November will not see hundreds of thousands cellphone subscribers porting to a rival network despite the hype created.
Wentzel says there are several hidden costs associated with number portability that many consumers are either unaware of or simply haven't thought about.
"One of the biggest factors standing in the way of porting from one network to another is your existing contract. You will have to buy yourself out of the contract before you are able to successfully port, and I am not sure how many cellphone subscribers are willing to incur that additional expense for a new network provider that does not necessarily guarantee a better or cheaper service."
He says this is further complicated by the lack of transparency with regards to cellphone bills. According to Wentzel, the majority of the networks do not disclose how much a user is paying for airtime and for the handset.
"Users may want to port, but the network provider will inform them that there is an amount outstanding for the handset. This amount was not previously disclosed, so users could be in for a nasty surprise."
He says prepaid customers may find it easier to port, but will forfeit unused airtime or will have to wait until their credit is used up.
Wentzel agrees there may be an initial burst, but this will even out over time. He says global churn associated with number portability has been fairly low, which may paint a realistic picture locally.
"As much as it is positive to encourage competition, I am not holding my breath for number portability to make a dramatic impact on the local economy," says Wentzel. "The only possible sector that may see an immediate benefit is corporate companies. Number portability will make it much easier for them to barter for better deals for employees. Previously, it was difficult to purchase batches of numbers from one provider to another, whereas in November, corporate companies can port users over individually and probably benefit from a cost perspective."
As much as he does not have a crystal ball, Wentzel remains adamant the churn will be low and that more will need to be done before consumers will truly benefit.
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