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Making sense of Internet numbers

How did Egypt accomplish its 64% Internet penetration in four years, while SA saw a measly 10% in 10 years?
By Damaria Senne, ITWeb senior journalist
Johannesburg, 21 May 2008

I like the predictability of numbers. They tell me the scope of the problem, what has been achieved, how much was spent, and the amount of work that still has to be done.

But then, I always skim through the last chapter of a book, whether it's a mystery or suspense novel, before I buy it, so I know "whodunit" before I pay to find out how they did it. So maybe my perspective is a little skewed.

As a journalist, I'm interested in the numbers to put into context the stories that people tell me. If you tell me your company is doing well, I want to put a nice round number to the growth pattern.

Numbers also tell me how much revenue a company generated, how much profit was made and which areas of business the money came from.

This is why I'm currently obsessing about Egypt's 64% Internet penetration and comparing it with SA's measly 10%, following my trip to Cairo to attend the ITU Telecoms Africa 2008 conference.

The vast difference in ICT adoption and usage between the countries does not make sense to me at all, despite my preconceived notions, the conspiracy theories and government's explanations that I have heard since I became a telecoms journalist at ITWeb.

Egypt kicks butt

Four years after Egypt announced plans to liberalise its ICT sector, the country has seen sustained double-digit growth in the ICT sector that went as high as 25%, eclipsing that country's national economic growth of 7%.

Egypt has a population of 76 million, and added 10 million new mobile phone subscribers last year, pushing the total subscribers to 30 million. The country has 64% Internet penetration and adds 25 000 households to broadband services per month.

It also takes basic ICT services to under-serviced areas through more than 1 500 ICT clubs (like Internet caf'es) nationwide. The ICT clubs offer services at 20c per hour.

By contrast, SA began its liberalisation of the ICT sector more than 10 years ago and has over five million Internet connections, with broadband connections recently passing the million mark.

Why is it that SA worked so hard for about a decade to liberalise the ICT sector, yet we've accomplished less than Egypt?

Not good enough

If government is truly holding the ICT industry back, and stakeholders have known about it for years, why aren't they doing something about it?

Damaria Senne, senior journalist, ITWeb

Industry stakeholders and analysts have said the problem is that the South African government has a stake in the very institution that has a monopoly in the telecoms sector, creating a conflict of interest.

There are days when I wonder if that explanation is not an excuse to pass the buck to someone else, or even a convenient conspiracy theory.

If government is truly holding the ICT industry back, and stakeholders have known about it for years, why aren't they doing something about it?

There is no denying that government regularly drops the ball. An example is the unbundling of the local loop, which has, in theory, been prioritised by government, but which will not have a meaningful impact on Neotel, as it has already invested heavily in its own network.

I also don't think SA's lacklustre performance is due to a larger geographical area either, as some ICT stakeholders have said to explain why their network roll-out across the country has been slow. Egypt is much bigger geographically.

My muddled thinking brought me to this: SA has numerous initiatives to encourage ICT access and usage, including broadband. But somewhere along the line, we're missing something. If we weren't, we wouldn't be trailing a country that only began its liberalisation process four years ago.

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