The International Data Corporation (IDC) says smartphone shipments will exceed feature phone shipments for the first time in 2013.
According to the IDC, 918.6 million smartphones are forecast to be shipped by vendors this year, accounting for 50.1% of total mobile shipments worldwide. By 2017, it is forecast that 1.5 billion smartphones will be shipped worldwide - accounting for just over two thirds of total mobile phone shipments.
The IDC says this shift will largely be driven by the growing demand for smartphones in emerging markets "where smartphone user bases are still relatively small and economic prospects are considerably higher".
"Smartphone shipments to China, Brazil and India will comprise a growing percentage of the device type's volume in each forecast year. Smartphone demand is burgeoning in these large, populous nations as their respective economies have grown; this has made for a larger middle class that is prepared to buy smartphones," says IDC.
It was recently reported that China has, for the first time, overtaken the US to become the world's top smart device market, with the most active Android and iOS connections in the world. As such, IDC says China is at the forefront of the shift.
Senior research manager for IDC Asia-Pacific Melissa Chau says: "While we don't expect China's smartphone growth to maintain the pace of a runaway train as it has over the last two years, there continue to be big drivers to keep the market growing as it leads the way to ever-lower smartphone prices, and the country's transition to 4G networks is only just beginning.
"Even as China starts to mature, there remains enormous untapped potential in other emerging markets like India, where we expect less than half of all phones shipped there to be smartphones by 2017, and yet it will weigh in as the world's third-largest market."
By 2017, IDC forecasts that the top six countries for smartphone shipments will be China, the US, India, Brazil, the UK and Japan.
Top five countries smartphone shipments and market share, 2013 and 2017 (units in millions)
Country* | 2013 Unit Shipments | 2013 Market Share | 2017 Unit Shipments | 2017 Market Share | 2017/2013 Growth |
1. China | 301.2 | 32.8% | 457.9 | 30.2% | 52.0% |
2. US | 137.5 | 15.0% | 183.0 | 12.1% | 33.1% |
3. UK | 35.5 | 3.9% | 47.5 | 3.1% | 33.8% |
4. Japan | 35.2 | 3.8% | 37.7 | 2.5% | 7.1% |
5. Brazil | 28.9 | 3.1% | 66.3 | 4.4% | 129.4% |
6. India | 27.8 | 3.0% | 155.6 | 10.3% | 459.7% |
Others | 352.5 | 38.4% | 568.1 | 37.5% | 61.2% |
Total | 918.6 | 100.0% | 1516.1 | 100.0% | 65.0% |
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