While SA is only in its first year of having access to fourth-generation wireless broadband technology and is set for steady growth, global subscriber figures are expected to skyrocket this year.
This is according to a recent report by information and analytics provider IHS, which states that global LTE subscribers will more than double in 2013 - to exceed 100 million. IHS says LTE subscribers worldwide will reach 198.1 million this year - up 115% from 92.3 million last year.
World Wide Worx MD Arthur Goldstuck says SA will gradually start catching up to the trend - as the technology becomes more ubiquitous, devices more readily available, and as more consumers start seeking a better mobile Internet experience.
SA's operators have, in effect, been ready to roll out the new technology for about a year now, but certain barriers to entry - including the lack of spectrum allocation - have delayed the process. Despite this, all four operators have forged on.
Goldstuck says the rollout of LTE in SA will be incremental, and "we can expect to see about 100 000 users this year, reaching the million mark as early as 2014".
Early progress
Operators are reluctant to share current subscriber figures, for competitive reasons, but say they are optimistic about the growth of LTE in the country, considering the obvious interest and desire for high-speed data among consumers in SA.
Vodacom, first to the field with its limited LTE deployment in October, has since grown its LTE-enabled base stations from the initial 70, to the 540 that are now live.
Second in line, MTN launched LTE commercially at the end of November - also to a limited degree. The operator currently has LTE coverage in Johannesburg, Pretoria and Durban. MTN says it has "modernised" 3 400 base stations in preparation for LTE and will look to add more base stations, as well as extend the service to Cape Town, this year.
Third and fourth mobile operators, Cell C and 8ta, are both trialling their LTE services with a group of participants who fall within their coverage areas. 8ta launched its trial in November, in Gauteng, and Cell C launched its trial across SA in December, in the main cities of Johannesburg, Pretoria, Durban and Cape Town.
Cell C says, while it is extending its LTE coverage in Cape Town and Durban during the first quarter of 2013, the operator remains adamant it does not intend to roll out LTE on a national scale, until there is more clarity regarding government's broadband plans.
8ta says its LTE trial - launched in November - is progressing well. The operator is in the process of collating interim results.
Speed specifics
LTE has the potential to operate at more than double the speed of any mobile connection currently commercially available in SA and will provide significant multiples faster than the 2G and 3G connections common across the country. Theoretically, LTE could offer downloads as fast as 299.6Mbps and uploads up to 75.4Mbps.
Vodacom's head of corporate affairs, Richard Boorman, says there are no statistics available on average speeds at this stage. "We mentioned before that the experience in Europe has been real-world speeds of 6-12 Mbps. Anecdotally we've been seeing higher speeds, but that's purely based on the feedback I've seen on social media."
MTN CTO Kanagaratnam Lambotharan says, while LTE offers broadband speeds of up to 70Mbps, consumers can expect speeds of between 7Mbps and 20Mbps on average, dependent on network conditions.
Karin Fourie, Cell C executive head of communications, says: "We have seen average speeds of between 10Mbps and15Mbps on download, and about 5Mbps and10Mbps on upload. In many cases customers are experiencing much higher speeds."
8ta says it will release speed results in due course.
On the cards
While LTE is currently not available on a pay-as-you-go basis, both Vodacom and MTN say prepaid LTE is on the cards.
Boorman says Vodacom aims to have prepaid up and running towards the end of the first quarter of 2013, while MTN's Lambotharan says the operator plans to make LTE available on prepaid "in due course".
Goldstuck says an organic shift from 3G to LTE will start taking place in SA as device and network availability starts to improve. "Eventually 3G will be to LTE what Edge is to 3G now. So in other words, LTE will soon be the default network used, 3G the fall-back."
Also counting in favour of LTE growth, he says, is the fact that the new technology will inevitably grow much faster than 3G did in its first year, "just because 3G was so absurdly expensive".
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