Changes in technology are expected to lead to a new wave of hardware replacement, says JSE-listed Mustek, which last night released its financial results for the six months to December.
However, analysts are not as enthusiastic, and have expressed doubt that changes in technology will drive any significant hardware refresh cycle.
Mustek CEO David Kan says Microsoft`s next-generation 64-bit Vista operating system software packages, replacing the current 32-bit XP and server platforms, should lead to a wave of hardware acquisition from next year.
"The 64-bit technology`s processing capability is significantly faster and more powerful than the current 32-bit applications, which will drive large-scale re-equipping of ICT infrastructure as organisations wish to stay abreast of their competitors," he adds.
Kan says broadband technologies continue to penetrate the local market, with Telkom`s DSL fixed-line technology by far the most used broadband technology in SA at the moment.
"We believe the next wave of broadband connectivity will probably be based on WiMAX technology. WiMAX will offer WLAN-type connectivity over large geographical areas through transmitter masts similar to those presently used by the mobile companies."
Next-generation
He says Intel is embedding WiMAX into its next-generation processors, which will power both Windows and Macintosh computers.
"This means the next-generation computers will be automatically connectable to cross-country wireless networks, which should revolutionise always-on connectivity.
"For Mustek, this would strengthen the wave of hardware replacements already under way due to the migration to 64-bit systems."
However, Roy Blume, BMI-TechKnowledge research manager for IT services, casts doubt on whether a big hardware refresh cycle can be expected next year.
"In terms of the Microsoft platform, no one except for a few big organisations is likely to refresh their whole IT environment. The 64-bit and WiMAX technologies will probably change the computing environment and how we connect to the Internet, but I don`t foresee a whole new cycle."
Blume also notes that companies now have different upgrading options to consider when adapting their IT infrastructure to new applications, which does not necessarily imply replacement of hardware.
WiMAX
"Every six months one industry or other is talking about refreshing their hardware environment, but this is driven by business needs and aging infrastructure. It is unlikely that everyone will suddenly ditch their existing environment just because of the release of Vista," he says.
BMI-TechKnowledge telecoms analyst Richard Hurst agrees with Mustek that WiMAX will be the next big platform for broadband connectivity, but cautions that certain issues surrounding roll-out and implementation must be taken into account.
"One must be careful thinking that WiMAX will be about easy roll-out and create a broadband Utopia. WiMAX centres around access to the broadband spectrum and thus will be heavily affected by licensing issues. Therefore, not all players will be able to just gain access to WiMAX," he says.
Hurst believes there is a danger of too much WiMAX hype, but hopes the industry has learnt some lessons from WiFi.
"WiMAX is currently riding on the coattails of WiFi, and WiFi was definitely hyped. The pros and cons of WiMAX should be weighed up rather carefully," he says, adding that a more realistic approach to this technology would be more beneficial to the industry.
Commenting on Intel`s decision to embed WiMAX into its next-generation processors, Hurst speculates that the company is perhaps seeking to move into the wireless space.
"Intel has been pushing WiMAX technology quite hard. It is possible that they see the PC and laptop eventually becoming a terminal for all telecommunications."
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