Craig Brunsden, chief marketing officer at Axiz, says IDC's preliminary forecast of 5% growth for desktop and notebooks in quarter one of 2007 is not a cause for concern.
Brunsden believes that quarter three will be the one to watch as the market responds to major launches by vendors such as Intel and Microsoft.
Traditionally, quarter one is used to determine the performance of any given year, but Brunsden says this approach has not always proven to be the most accurate benchmark.
He cites 2003 as a good example, when forecasters predicted flat growth for the year and it ended up delivering 14%. Quarter one of 2004 saw a similar situation, with growth of 10% expected and 34% actually delivered.
"The market is changing and we no longer see the same buying cycles for PCs, but rather activity associated with big industry launches and changing consumer usage models like mobile PCs. We have finally seen the end of the Y2K hangover, having experienced three years of slow uptake. Now it is all about the major vendors and what launches they are planning," comments Brunsden.
While quarter one was slower, Brunsden says he fully expects the second half of the year to bring higher levels of activity: "There has been a level of uncertainty with the launch of Microsoft Vista, but this will ease towards the end of the year, as end-users give more serious consideration to Vista and other new products, such as Santa Rosa, Intel's next generation mobile processor chipset, and Intel's Core 2 Quad processor."
While competition continues to increase, Brunsden believes the key players continue to perform consistently, thereby gaining ground against arch rivals.
Competitors like Intel have undoubtedly put immense pressure on the likes of AMD, making the playing field much tougher. Brunsden says it is possibly a case of survival of the most agile and innovative right now.
Not one to ignore forecasts, he does think IDC's prediction is reflective of the market. "It's almost as if the market is taking a breather after some very strenuous periods of activity. It is for this reason that IDC's 5% makes sense, but it is not a cause for concern or a reflection of a long-term slow down. It is merely the life cycle of a very dynamic market."
The pattern internationally is not much different, with the majority of mature markets expecting mediocre growth figures, adds Brunsden.
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Established in 1989, Axiz is an ICT infrastructure distributor whose product range comprises in-campus computing infrastructure, namely servers, desktops, mobiles, printers, networking, storage, memory, peripherals, components and consumables. The company enables customer-efficiency and productivity through its partners by merging technology with intelligence, and providing quality products. By equipping its reseller partners with innovative thinking and technology intelligence, Axiz is at the forefront of technology thought leadership. The company innovates by constantly challenging and pushing boundaries and turning its people's knowledge and expertise into keen insights that strengthen its reseller partners' success, improve people's lives and achieve prosperity for everyone in its various communities.
Axiz is committed to building a sustainable company, actively contributing to a sustainable economy for South Africa and the African continent by dynamically living the Five Capitals Model of Sustainability. The company has already become a pioneer, innovator and leader in its sector through the implementation of its Ledibogo Programme; its Business Partner Development Programme, as well as other initiatives such as founding and supporting Inqolobane (the Employee Ownership Association Africa, www.eoaa.co.za) and Qhubeka (the Motive Power Movement, www.qhubeka.com).
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