A year ago mobile commerce was almost non-existent in SA. Today, it is an industry poised for a boom that will match the growth in Web-based e-commerce.
According to the SA Mobile Commerce and Communication Survey 2001, published by the Acuity Group and RangeGate, transactions using mobile devices reached R3 billion in 2000, and will grow to R6.2 billion in 2001.
The bulk of these transactions will be between businesses, with consumer transactions on mobile devices making up only a very small proportion.
However, this does not reflect a spending boom, warns Arthur Goldstuck, the independent analyst who led the research on behalf of Acuity and RangeGate.
"Within the business environment, most of these transactions will reflect movement within specific supply chains, rather than sales of products," he says. "In other words, the benefits of mobile commerce will be seen largely in streamlining logistics and rendering supply chains more efficient."
In 2000, no more than R50 million in transactions could be attributed to consumer spending, while close to R3 billion was accounted for in the B2B market.
"Logistics made up for the bulk of mobile commerce transactions in the year 2000," says Goldstuck. "The rest of the B2B transaction activity was made up by a range of other mobile-specific services. In other words, the mobile device itself was often the focus of B2B activity in 2000."
Mobile devices have been in use in SA in the supply chain process for some years, but the integration of transactions into this process only began to occur in 2000, with the sale of recharge vouchers to mobile kiosks leading the way.
Business-to-consumer mobile commerce barely existed during 2000, with around R50 million actively transacted across a range of categories, none of which made a significant impact. These included the ordering of flowers online, tickets for entertainment events, and mobile banking activity, with the latter making the only appreciable impact.
Jacques Magliolo, an independent analyst responsible for data analysis on the research, found that the growth in cellular subscribers for the whole of Africa in the 1998-99 period was 39%, with 70% of that coming from SA.
"In many countries, mobile phone subscriber bases are catching up to and even surpassing the subscriber numbers for fixed-line phones," he reports. "However, this is a consequence not of the need for mobile communications devices, but of the need for communications devices in the first place."
In other words, Africa has seen very low levels of fixed-line telephone connectivity, and mobile communications fills this gap, rather than providing an attractive alternative. Consequently, cellular subscribers in Africa are set to reach 90% of fixed-line subscribers in 2002.
Other findings were:
In 2001, the industry will begin to mature, integrating the purchase of recharge vouchers as one of the most high-profile mobile transaction categories.
Location-based content will emerge on the radar in experimental form, and its short-term success will depend heavily on the response to this early implementation.
By 2004, consumer mobile commerce will have emerged as a major market, with up to R6.4 billion in transactions. This will still be dwarfed by B2B mobile, which will reach up to R74 billion, thanks to its critical role in streamlining logistics in large organisations.
Most of the R74 billion reflects stock management within supply chains, rather than stock renewal from outside the supply chain.
"It is the no-nonsense business applications that are delivering value for users," concluded Goldstuck. "The message is, if it is not right for you, steer clear of it. If you`re sure it fulfils a business need, you will gain tremendous benefit from the efficiencies it brings to your business processes."
Share
Editorial contacts