The percent of users buying goods and services on the Web will grow modestly from 26 percent in December 1997 to 40 percent in December 2002, according to a new report published by International Data Corporation (IDC).
But given the increase in users, the actual number of Web buyers will expand from 18 million in 1997 to more than 128 million in 2002. As a result of this explosion in Web buyers and the increase in the average transaction size, IDC predicts the amount of commerce conducted over the Web will reach more than $400 billion by 2002, reflecting a 1997/2002 compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 103 percent.
"The growth in the number of devices and users on the Web will continue practically unabated through the forecast period," said Carol Glasheen, IDC`s director of primary research and market models. IDC forecasts the number of people accessing the World Wide Web to hit almost 100 million by yearend 1998 and 320 million by 2002. In 1997, the number of devices used to access the World Wide Web was 78.1 million; by 2002, the number of Web devices will increase to more than 515 million.
Growth of users and devices in non-U.S. regions will be even more dramatic than growth within the United States, the IDC study found. In fact, in spite of Asia`s current economic struggle, this region will experience the strongest growth in the number of users and devices between 1997 and 2002.
This report, The Global Market Forecast for Internet Usage and Commerce (IDC #B16569), represents the input and fresh primary research from IDC`s latest Internet Commerce Market Model_. IDC believes the Internet Commerce Market Model offers the industry`s single most comprehensive picture of Web usage and commerce. It is based on more than 40,000 primary research interviews per year in 17 countries and on IDC`s vaunted supply-side forecasts for PCs, network computers (NCs), modems, and other technologies.
The report provides sizing and a forecast of the market for Internet commerce, including the number of users and devices accessing the World Wide Web, the level of commerce transactions per user, and the number of pages on the Web. Market sizing and forecasts are segmented by region and by user type. Regional forecasts in Western Europe and Asia/Pacific were developed on a country-level basis and then rolled up to represent the region
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