Finance minister Trevor Manuel`s announcement earlier this week that the accuracy of the CPIX figure was in doubt and would possibly need to be readjusted could have a knock-on effect for the telecoms industry.
Last year, Telkom filed its planned tariff increases for 2003 with the Independent Communications Authority of SA (ICASA), saying its regulated services would see an average price increase of 9.5%.
Should the CPIX figure be revised downward and be backdated, this will leave the monopoly with quite a headache, as it will probably have to reduce its tariffs and somehow make amends to the customers it has inadvertently been overcharging up to this point.
In announcing its increases last year, Telkom went for the maximum allowed, 11%, although under a deal brokered with ICASA, the company was required to forfeit R320 million of its future allowed increase, thus bringing the actual increase to 9.5%.
This despite the fact that the dramatic increase in the inflation rate in the months prior to this was caused primarily by price increases in food and other basic consumer items, which are not major purchase items for Telkom.
Statistician-general, Pali Lehohla has admitted the error in the CPIX figure, but declined to reveal the margin of error or whether the figure would be backdated, saying only that a statement would be made on Friday.
According to independent economist, Mike Schussler, if the CPIX figure is backdated, it will affect everything, including Telkom`s new tariffs.
"If these tariffs have been based on an incorrect CPIX figure, I imagine they would have to be readjusted, and the monopoly would be expected to give some form of credit to customers that have been overcharged because the tariffs were initially set too high," he says.
"The original tariff increase was ridiculous anyway, as Telkom`s rates - unlike those of the majority of telecoms providers worldwide - have continued to increase, even though the general global trend has been for these rates to decrease," he says.
Schussler believes that ICASA needs to find a way of bringing Telkom in line with this global trend, as the high prices for telecoms services in SA have already had a negative impact.
An example of this, he says, is the fact that the initial roll-out of rural telecoms services pretty much failed, as the people in these areas could not afford the high prices they were charged.
"It is essential for SA to join the modern economy and get in step with global trends. Telkom has enjoyed many years of high profits as the telecoms monopoly in SA, now it is time that it gave something back to the country.
"If Telkom reduces its rates it will have a healthy knock-on effect for the rest of the economy and I really doubt that it will lose out either, as if the rates are cheaper, people will use their phones more," says Schussler.
Telkom`s senior manager for media relations, Andrew Weldrick, says he is unsure what, if any, effect such a change would have on the company`s tariffs, as it sets these according to figures provided by Econometrix, rather than by the Reserve Bank.
"Our tariffs are also worked out according to CPI, which includes mortgages and rentals, rather than CPIX, so that may also play a role in whether our tariffs will need to be adjusted," he says.
"Our tariffs are regulated and approved by ICASA, so even if there is some form of readjustment to be made, it would be incumbent on the regulator to make a pronouncement in this regard."
Asked how Telkom would make amends to potentially overcharged customers, should its tariffs have to be revised, Weldrick says: "I wouldn`t want to speculate on something like that, as we would have to wait on ICASA`s decision first."
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