Desktop death nowhere in sight

Contrary to the view that the proliferation of mobile computing devices will cannibalise the traditional desktop platform, the death of the desktop PC is still nowhere in sight, according to AMD CEO Dirk Meyer.

Research analyst Gartner predicted the PC industry will be singing the blues this year, with worldwide shipments declining to 275 million units - or almost 12% - from 2008. Analysts blame the decline on a variety of factors, notably the rise of the tablet computer, singling out Apple's iPad in particular.

However, Meyer notes that the introduction of each new exciting computing device or software application considered outside the narrow scope of the traditional PC often triggers views that the PC will soon be extinct.

“Netbooks, smartphones, tablets, cloud computing, virtualisation, mobility, new operating systems - the introduction of each has sparked and stoked this 'death of the PC' debate,” says Meyer.

To the contrary, he believes, each of these innovations is actually a sign of health, and of sustained public desire for the life-enhancing benefits of personal computing and being connected online.

Meyer argues that millions of people around the world are not just purchasing their first PC as millions also aspire to buy one. “Millions who already have a PC or multiple personal computing devices, would love to do more than their current ones allow,” he says.

Second, Meyer believes that the world is in the midst of one of the most dramatic shifts ever in the way people use computers.

“PCs, for years mostly text-based machines manipulated with mice and keyboards, are rapidly becoming rich, visual multimedia hubs controlled by users' hands and bodies for which no amount of processing power seems to be enough.

“This shift will soon be introducing PC users to immersive, interactive, vivid new computing experiences beyond their wildest imaginations, while making older or underpowered PCs look antique,” he argues.

Focusing on the facts, Meyer says despite the worst economy since the Great Depression, the PC market grew in 2009. He adds that this year desktop PC makers remain on track to sell more than 360 million PCs in 2010.

However, Gartner changed its tune recently, saying about one million desktop PCs will be sold each day, with fellow analyst firm IDC predicting the market will expand to approximately 630 million units per year by 2015, an annual growth rate of more than 12%.

“That's real, tangible growth; growth that will continue because the industry is working at the frontiers of innovation to give customers the experiences and capabilities they demand.”

Meyer also attributes the accelerated processing unit (APU), which combines computing and graphics processing on a single chip, as representing a promising inflection point for the PC.

He asserts that until now, desktop PCs have been powered by two kinds of chips - central processing units for everyday computing tasks, and graphics processing units for visual and video tasks.

“With the advent of the APU, desktop PC makers will expand the market for their products by delivering the vivid, photo-realistic, touch-based 3D experiences customers increasingly demand in sleek form factors with all-day battery life,” he points out.

According to the AMD boss, there is growing global appetite for multimedia content created, edited and enhanced on the PCs.

“That content is consumed downstream by any number of devices. Video - the lingua francaof the global village - will comprise 90% of all Internet traffic by 2013, according to Cisco. Right now, 20 hours of video are uploaded to YouTube every minute.

“More than 1 000 pictures are uploaded to Facebook every second. PC users worldwide have an estimated nine billion high-definition video files stored in their systems, waiting to be e-mailed through an expanding global network of high-speed connections.

“3D films and gaming will soon be mainstream - a disruptive opportunity for the PC industry,” he says.

It is also Meyer's view that as content becomes richer, exciting new user interfaces such as multi-touch, gesture recognition and machine-controlling 'depthcams' are coming, and can tap into the powerful processing APUs deliver in a way that will completely redefine the PC experience.

“Imagine the possibilities for immersive games and body-interface multimedia when vivid computing delivers a 'personal cloud' in a wireless network to give homes computing horsepower comparable to that found in today's Fortune 500 data centres.”

However, there has been a marked increase in the popularity of mobile PCs of late with the notebook market making 55% of the total computer market while desktops make 45%, according to Dell.