A discussion on wireless technologies for e-commerce at the recent Commonwealth Business Council e-business conference in Johannesburg got back to basics as the audience zoomed in on assertions that third-generation cellular technologies may not make sense in Africa.
While the two European speakers, Shakeel Mughal of Schlumberger Sema and Harry 'Tomi Davies of Sapient, discussed the projected demand for mobile commerce and business issues around wireless transactions, Airborn CEO Ross MacDonald remained unconvinced of the need for new technology to achieve m-commerce.
"In the African market the technology leapfrog has already happened," he said, referring to the sudden and massive penetration of cellular in SA and elsewhere. "I don`t believe we need 2.5G or 3G. Current GSM will suffice."
He also made no bones about one of the Holy Grails of mobile data - location-based services.
"I don`t believe that location-specific services will take off, even in developed countries," he said.
Airborn has based its business on the belief that the combination of voice and SMS (short message service) can be used to provide advanced services, with a bit of innovation to link technologies together.
But Mughal, while admitting that his figures "may not all apply in the African context," predicted that mobile commerce will take off after 2004, largely due to user-friendly technology additions such as advanced SIM cards and easy OTA (over-the-air) setup of WAP (Wireless Application Protocol) and WIG (Wireless Internet Gateway) functions.
Davies agreed, saying the take-off of m-commerce was inevitable if one extrapolated its growth from the recent growth in GSM subscribers. He believes the major issues to look at are the interaction between various partners involved in a mobile transaction and how revenues are to be shared among them.
However, members of the audience virtually ignored these predictions to focus on the issue of new technologies. A European WAP developer argued that WAP failed because of a lack of good applications, while a local distributor said new handsets, which will inevitably replace older models, would have new data functions.
MacDonald countered that only a small percentage of functions available on handsets are being used today, and that people are not likely to change. Handsets manufacturers, he said, followed the usual consumer electronics wisdom of adding features regardless of whether users needed them. "There is a chance this was a mistake."
Related interview:
Airborn sees future in SMS
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