End of the road for ICT ministers

Johannesburg, 09 Jan 2008

The shift in power within the ruling African National Congress (ANC) could result in ministerial changes at the departments of communications, public enterprises and public service and administration, says political analyst, Adam Habib.

"These three ministers - Ivy Matsepe-Casaburri, Geraldine Fraser-Moleketi and Alec Erwin - are considered to be part of president Thabo Mbeki's inner circle. For now sentiment leans towards allowing the current Cabinet to serve until 2009; however, that could all change if an amicable relationship is not forged between Mbeki's camp and that of new ANC president, Jacob Zuma," he explains.

The three ministers all held positions on the ANC's national executive committee (NEC) prior to the party's national conference in Polokwane at the end of last year. However, none of them were able to retain their positions on the NEC in the vote that saw Zuma take the party's presidency.

However, Department of Communications director-general Lyndall Shope-Mafole did receive a place on the new NEC.

No policy reviews

Despite the departure of the three ministers being "highly likely" post SA's 2009 general elections, Habib says he doubts there will be much in the way of ICT policy changes.

"These three lost their places on the NEC purely for political reasons - Mbeki's circle was jettisoned. It is highly unlikely that performance or policies had a role to play in their loss of favour," he explains.

Dr Pieter Fourie, head of the department of politics at the University of Johannesburg, and Richard Hurst, telecommunications analyst at BMI-TechKnowledge, agree.

"The largest implication the ICT sector is likely to see is the replacement of specific people. Policy should remain consistent post these changes," says Fourie.

However, Hurst notes there could be changes to the public enterprises-led Infraco project if Shope-Mafole's appointment to the NEC leads to her replacement of Matsepe-Casaburri.

"There is a high chance that this project - which was a slap in the face of the DOC - could see some amendments given the political dynamics," he comments.

Zuma vs Mbeki

For now, ministerial replacements should only be expected in 2009, says Habib.

However, there is a possibility that friction between the two centres of power could result in action being taken earlier, he warns.

"At the moment, everything rides on whether the two camps can form some kind of working relationship. There is a lot of tension at the moment and we are seeing pronouncements and decisions from Mbeki that show he will not be a lame duck president," Habib explains.

Examples of Mbeki's refusal to be dictated to by the new ANC executive include the appointment of the SABC board outside of the ANC's wishes, and yesterday's arrest of Gauteng Scorpions head Gerrie Nel, says Habib. (Nel is leading the investigation into police commissioner and Mbeki ally Jackie Selebi.)

"If the fragile relationship between party and state unravels quickly, we could see changes as soon as three months from now. Matsepe-Casaburri, Erwin and Fraser-Moleketi are likely to be among the early fallers if this is the case," he concludes.