It`s a programming language. It`s an operating environment. It`s a caffeine-laced beverage. And, according to its proponents, it`s the future of computing! Object strategists may have wondered about the lack of serious Java coverage in the business domain over the past three years. In fact, most people have been closet Java sceptics. When Java first began percolating about three years ago, most people viewed it as "A language for making Web pages dynamic", which seemed a fine idea. However, when suggestions first began emerging that Java would become a mainstream programming language, the very thought seemed bizarre. The world wanted to believe that companies would adopt a platform-independent, dynamic object-oriented (OO) language. But it simply didn`t make sense that Java could succeed. Sun was not an 800-pound gorilla in OO technology. Java didn`t provide any serious technical innovations over Smalltalk and Objective-C, neither of which had achieved widespread adoption despite a decade of valiant effort. What would be the hook? A year ago this scepticism looked justified. There only existed trivial Java applications, such as applet animations and rudimentary development environments. However, another calendar year has passed - three years in Web time - and Java has come into its own. The amount of serious development is staggering! It turned out that most organisations were willing to adopt a platform-independent, dynamic OO language. After all, portability decreases deployment costs, and few really want to do memory management. But most organisations wouldn`t take the risk in the absence of widespread support in the tools market. Fortunately, tool vendors were willing to support a platform-independent, dynamic OO language. This is probably because portability makes their lives easier and they can add more value to a dynamic language. But few vendors would commit precious resources in the absence of strong market demand. This Catch-22 situation resulted in a relatively stable state of low adoption. What was needed was an outside force to overcome the activation energy of this old stable state and move us into a new stable state of available products and rapid adoption. This outside force was the Internet and the accompanying enthusiasm from senior management. Sun capitalised perfectly on this enthusiasm by packaging Java as network-aware, centrally deployable, and inherently secure. The dynamics that prevented adoption in the past reinforced it once the initial barrier was overcome. The more products that became available, the more organisations felt comfortable using Java-based solutions. The more organisations that bought Java products, the more resources vendors devoted to creating new products. This positive feedback accounts for three interesting trends in the industry: full-scale wars among the largest industry players to see who can be more Java-friendly; a spate of innovative offerings from small vendors; and a crunch on Java programming talent. Usually it takes a while for something like Java to appear on the radar screens of the large software industry players. But in the case of Java, it seems every day brings a major vendor announcing a new Java initiative or attacking a competitor`s Java initiative. In conclusion, Java is systematic, it is lasting and it^1s absolutely critical. It is the universal environment for an applications renaissance in our industry. It is also our last, best hope for revitalised write-once, run-it-anywhere, cross-platform solutions. If developers mess this up, the way other standards like Unix have been messed up, we are all going to be enormous losers as a consequence. It`s all about being able to write applications that run everywhere. So wake up and smell the JAVA, china!
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