Instant messaging, or Chat, as most people know it, is about to enter the mainstream of business, and the world of mobile computing; and early indications are that the convergence of these two applications or paradigms is set to have fundamental implications on both.
Instant messaging, as it was developed by Israeli company ICQ, has been under-used by executives, but played a critical part in Web design teams in the early days of the Internet.
Now, with the growing number of cellphone handsets in use around the world, the picture is changing. Ericsson, Motorola and Nokia have established the Mobile Instant Messaging and Presence (IMPS) initiative for creating standards for mobile instant messaging. Standards to be embraced are SMS, MMS (Multimedia Messaging Services), WAP, SIP (Session Initiation Protocol) and XML.
As always, with the sheer weight of candidate mobile units deployed in the field, the numbers are compelling. IDC expects the volume of corporate instant messaging users to soar from 6 million last year to 181 million in 2004. Even if IDC is way off target - and many of the analysts have been way off target and downright irresponsible with their projections, leading to the hype-dismay cycle we see so often - it`s still clear that mobile/instant messaging convergence will create a brand new opportunity.
The usual challenges
However, there are challenges, as always. We`ll need to see the development of input-friendly keyboards rather than the minute cellphone handsets or Ericsson Chatboard-type accessories, which inhibit any form of cohesive or rapid input.
One of the key considerations is that the giant Internet service providers make their chat user bases available to and interoperable with each other, but that might be easier in principle than in practice.
A second consideration is that of security. Instant messages are inherently insecure, as eFront CEO Sam Jain found recently when his company`s ICQ logs were stolen and posted to the Web, causing an enormous embarrassment and catastrophic loss of market share.
Instant messaging has typically been addressed at the consumer market, so any number of companies are now addressing the requirement for greater robustness and security. These include Jabber, Mercury Prime, QuickSilver, 2Way, Ikimbo, Ezenia, NetLert, ACD Systems and Bantu. Lotus, Novell and Ericsson are already there with their own applications.
Viruses and libel
Instant messaging can also carry viruses, which typically won`t have widely published anti-virus antidotes, and they are highly efficient channels for information that can legally expose organisations. Just think of the potential for their revealing trade secrets and other forms of intellectual capital, or being used to transmit libellous and otherwise compromising statements.
Another killer problem for management is that, unlike e-mail, it tends to fall outside the domain of the corporate messaging backbone. It is effectively impossible to monitor and filter content subject to company policies.
Those concerns aside, the market is moving inexorably towards a standards-based mobile/instant messaging convergence space. The new specifications are expected to be in place by year-end, and the first products on the market by the end of next year.
It`s worth looking at the killer difference between SMS and instant messaging. SMSes are effectively "store and forward" or "send and forget" technologies, whereas the genius of Internet-based instant messaging is that it has a "presence" feature which advises you whether the person at the other end is online or not. The ability to have the best of both worlds is what is creating the enthusiasm among cellular providers.
But the stakes are high: statistics show that German cellphone users swapped 1.8 billion SMSs in December 2000, and UK users a billion in the same period. SA is at a similarly high level of usage, proportionally. Cellular carriers are not likely to give up this revenue stream in a hurry. So, mobile instant messaging will have its challenges, but when there is a market of this size and quality to be addressed, it is clear that capitalist and competitive forces will find a way through.
The mobile roadmap continues to unfurl, and all businesses will be watching with great interest.
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