2011 will see the use of social networks and cloud computing increasing, as more people come to understand how to use these services and, as more companies find ways to integrate their benefits into business operations.
This is the view of Adrian Schofield, manager at the Johannesburg Centre for Software Engineering (JCSE), and Arthur Goldstuck, MD at World Wide Worx.
According to Goldstuck, “SA is on the cusp of a new Internet, with social networking, cloud computing and apps redefining the way the Internet is used and what it can do for people and businesses”.
He adds that this will be a boon for those who are connected, but will expand the divide between the haves and the have-nots.
It is Schofield's view that 2011 will also see the proliferation of mobile workers in SA. “The rising cost of travel and the poor management of traffic on roads, lack of rail services, poor air services, combined with the lower cost of connectivity, will encourage more people to work out of the office.”
However, he points out that there will be some challenges, such as the distraction of social networking during business hours and the low speeds achieved across most networks, noting “these will be relatively minor irritations”.
Devices galore
Schofield also predicts a flood of new devices to hit the market this year to encourage more and more users to adapt their work styles to the use of mobile tools, rather than ones anchored to a desk or cable.
“Within those devices, I see Android becoming a dominant operating system. I also see the devices moving firmly into content creation,” he says.
“It is criminal that WiMax has been effectively destroyed in SA due to licensing delays. The same almost happened with the mobile TV.
“ICASA [Independent Communications Authority of SA] needs to put in place processes and structures that ensure this scenario won't be repeated with new communications technologies that continue to emerge,” he says.
Goldstuck adds that the concept of the cap needs to disappear from ADSL, or ADSL should become unshaped.
“It should not favour one form of traffic over another. The ideal would be for unshaped, uncapped ADSL, with the possible exception of file sharing networks being throttled back to prevent them clogging the lines.”
Taking a rap at mobile operators, Goldstuck believes they must commit themselves to quality of mobile broadband, arguing that having a large user base is not an excuse for a slowing network.
“The larger the user base, the more infrastructure is justified”.
It is also Goldstuck's view that the “absurdly” high cost of international roaming for data use must be addressed.
“It is not credible to argue that the local networks are at the mercy of international rates. Both MTN and Vodacom are large and powerful enough to tackle the issue head on. This is an issue we will push hard this year,” he says.
Government lip service
Government, Goldstuck adds, needs to pay more than lip service to bringing broadband to disadvantaged communities, and must not hide behind vague and unhelpful definitions of universal access.
“Of course, broadband alone is not something anyone can use in its own right, so any campaign, plan or project must integrate strategies for universal literacy, computer literacy and access to computers.”
Concurring with Goldstuck, Schofield says SA must make a determined effort to upgrade its networks to achieve better speeds and greater reliability.
“It is aggravating and frustrating to see the profits made by the service providers and their claims for high speed access, in the light of the angry complaints from users who are denied any decent service level,” says Schofield.
In the 21st Century, he explains, everyone who is connected, whether it is wired or wireless, should have the right to a guaranteed speed and up time. “It's not difficult, it has been achieved in many countries - it takes a commitment to the customer that does not seem to exist in South Africa.”
According to Schofield: “Local-loop unbundling must happen, in spite of Telkom's efforts, and between ICASA and the Competition Commission, there must be real competition between the operators, to drive prices down and service levels up.”
He is also of the view that the demand for bandwidth-eating on-line services will escalate. “The devices are available (at a cost) and the content is available - video, audio, books, magazines, news, data - the infrastructure must get ahead of the demand.
“South Africa has the opportunity to capitalise on the new technology. It must abandon its repressive thinking in order to do so,” notes Schofield.
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