A number of global mobile broadband markets have been characterised by massive changes in usage behaviour, driven largely by increased mobile broadband speeds and lower price points. However, this explosive growth can often result in a number of problems for communication service providers (CSPs) if the right capacity planning and back-end systems are not in place.
Thankfully for CSPs, fixed-line broadband usage trends are very accurate predictors of what mobile broadband usage trends and behaviour will be in the future. The Nokia Siemens Networks broadband study, conducted annually, has established a very clear correlation between the usage behaviour and speed of fixed-line broadband services and the behaviour of users and speed of mobile broadband networks within the next five years. “This means that CSPs in Africa can look to what Internet users have historically used their fixed-line connectivity for in order to predict what services will need to be provisioned over mobile networks in years to come,” explains Leslie Shannon, Mobile Broadband Marketing Manager at Nokia Siemens Networks (NSN).
This is important as the continent is experiencing a shift in the mobile broadband usage paradigm, driven largely by the rise of smartphones and other mobile end-devices, like iPads, as well as the broad array of products and services from content creators and providers.
“The proliferation of these devices has also given rise to new bandwidth-hungry applications and services such as online gaming, cloud-based services, photo-sharing, social networking and video streaming, which are all driving the demand for mobile broadband,” Shannon explains. “However, despite the demand and availability of these elements there are still barriers to their adoption and use on mobile networks, namely the speed and cost of mobile broadband.”
According to NSN these massive industry step changes only take place when the last enablement element falls into place. “As end-users have five years of experience with new developments in fixed-line connectivity, by the time mobile broadband catches up, these new mobile developments will meet a prepared and eager audience,” explains Shannon. “The result is a huge step change that occurs when the last piece of mobile enablement falls into place, be it increased speed, lower cost, the right device, or a combination of all three. And with a number of African CSPs rolling out high speed HSPA+ mobile network services at competitive rates, and LTE not far behind, we can expect this explosive growth in Africa soon.”
However, these step changes can be dichotomous for CSPs. Explosive growth in usage will increase billable data traffic over the network exponentially, not in the usual steady linear manner normally experienced. Conversely, overnight changes in signalling traffic can overload networks and cause them to crash, cutting consumers off from the service and creating an unfavourable user experience. “Furthermore, the CSPs that are able to rapidly adapt and accommodate new technologies, at the lowest cost and with the fewest back-end workarounds, will be the ones who will benefit the most from these step changes,” explains Shannon.
Accordingly, local CSPs should be asking themselves if they are ready for the massive change they know is coming. “While Africa has largely followed the international step changes linked to mobile e-mail, multimedia messaging and browsing services, thanks to the work done by BlackBerry and others, we can still expect massive growth in the mobile gaming, video streaming and cloud computing sectors,” Shannon continues. “For instance, next-generation mobile networks like LTE will offer the latency required to deliver a virtually smooth mobile gaming experience. Latency on mobile networks is already a growing requirement as mobile social gaming, like the popular iterations available on Facebook, become increasingly popular in Africa.”
To further illustrate the importance of provisioning appropriate mobile broadband capacity for gaming, a recent NSN Smart Labs case study on mobile networked gaming found that gaming data traffic was six times higher than baseline values, while gaming signalling traffic was 10 times higher than baseline values. “These are important numbers for local CSPs, who are looking for new revenue streams in the face of a changing voice business model,” says Shannon. “As such, this sector will provide an important business opportunity for CSPs going forward, and can be very successful - as long as the networks and backend systems are ready for these increases in data and signalling traffic.”
In terms of the other key business opportunities mentioned, Cisco has estimated that video streaming will comprise 66% of all mobile data traffic by 2015. “Services like YouTube already dominate the fixed line video streaming market, but with new streamed movie and TV services like Netflix and Hulu in the United States and streamed mobile TV coming online elsewhere in the world, this sector of the market holds great promise,” continues Shannon. “While this has worked well over fixed line streaming, the experience over mobile requires further advancement to deliver a smooth user experience. To accommodate this, CSPs will need to rethink and prepare new tariffs, because video streaming will quickly erode a customer's existing mobile broadband data limits. In addition, CSPs will need to look at other aspects like deep packet inspection, policy control and billing flexibility before transforming mobile video into a viable commercial offering.”
With the latest trend of cloud computing where all the vast amount of information available will soon be hosted in the cloud, the industry can use cloud computing as a medium to drive further growth and revenue. “Cloud computing is a new and exciting service model, but its adoption in countries is closely linked to network speeds. With applications and data accessed from the cloud, the speed at which users can access this information will determine the success of this model. But once cloud computing picks up in a country, it will assure CSPs a steady service offering with a revenue stream.” states Shannon. “This is the next generation in communications and the way of the future.”
To ensure that CSPs are ready for the mobile broadband step change that is looming on the horizon, NSN believes that they need to understand what fixed Internet users are currently doing in their markets and anticipate that this behaviour will move into the mobile space soon. “To take full advantage of this scenario, local CSPs will need to identify the application, technology, device or business model that will enable the step change in demand.
“It could be increased data or signalling capacity, low latency, improved network efficiency via LTE and HSPA+, appropriate billing, single sign on or policy control,” continues Shannon. “As none of us can really foretell the future, CSPs must keep a close watch on clues about how the market and the ecosystem will develop. They then need to think through the entire business proposition for each new offering and prepare network support functions today, which will enable them to accommodate tomorrow's mobile broadband needs,” Shannon concludes.
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