The newly-launched Ivorian Coast mobile telecommunications company, KoZ, is expected to reach around 480 000 subscribers by the end of 2007.
This is according to Badii Kechiche, market analyst on the African continent for growth strategy company Pyramid Research.
KoZ is a fully-owned subsidiary of telecommunications group Comium Luxembourg and was granted a fourth mobile operating licence last year.
The company began operations in June 2007. "Within the first two weeks, the mobile telecoms operator gained 200 000 subscribers," explains Kechiche.
KoZ is expected to gain up to 21% market share by 2012. This would be achieved only if it can prove successful in prolonging its initial momentum and expanding its outreach efforts without triggering a long-term price war, explains a recent report released by Pyramid Research, authored by Kechiche.
"KoZ has found an opportunity in the Ivorian market," explains Kechiche.
Moov Telecom, the third mobile entrant, does not operate at the lowest call rate. It adopted a simplified flat rate, meaning calls across networks and during different times of the day cost the same. This method has attracted a healthy subscriber base for Moov, but it did not exercise pressure on the existing operators to lower their prices, explains Kechiche.
"The opportunity presents itself now for KoZ to introduce attractive prices that appeal to the masses," he says.
Quick growth
The steep growth in subscriber uptake is fast, considering the mobile operator is the fourth operator to enter the market, says Kechiche. "It is interesting to note such quick growth with three mobile operators already on the ground."
Comium has taken quite a risk in entering the Ivorian market, since fourth entrants typically have fewer opportunities to gain market share, says Kechiche's report.
MTN, Orange and Moov are the other mobile operators in the country.
Pyramid Research states that, by year-end 2006, MTN had a subscriber base of around 1.6 million, with a forecasted 2.1 million subscribers by year-end 2007. Similarly, Orange had a recorded subscriber base of 1.8 million, with a predicted 2.4 million by year-end 2007. Moov had 700 000 subscribers, with a predicted 2007 year-end figure of 1.4 million.
Winning combination
A competitive market has created huge mobile growth within the country, notes Kechiche. Mobile telecommunications penetration stands at around 22% of a population of around 17 million people.
He says a combination of increased competition and improved political and economic stability will account strongly for the hefty mobile growth in the country. Nominal GDP per capita was $914 at the end of 2006 and is expected to reach $1 030 in 2008. Further mobile growth will ultimately generate lower average revenue per subscriber, he adds.
"We generally see that increased competition exercises downward pressure on prices which affects the average revenue per subscriber. Lower prices also increase affordability, hence higher penetration rates."
Mobile penetration in the country has been rising at an average of 43% annually for the past five years.
The report reveals that, if revenue grows at a 15% compound annual growth rate for the next five years, mobile telephony revenue would reach $1.8 billion by the end of 2012.
Overall, Ivory Coast's mobile subscriber growth is expected to grow from four million to around 6.5 million subscribers by the end of 2007.
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