Market awaits MTN figures

By Iain Scott, ITWeb group consulting editor

Johannesburg, 09 Jun 2005

Tonight`s release of MTN`s results for the year to March should create some interesting comparisons with Vodacom`s figures.

The market already has a rough idea of what MTN is likely to report in terms of headline earnings per share (HEPS), as the group issued a trading update last week, in compliance with JSE regulations.

The trading update indicated that MTN is to report an increase in HEPS of between 40% and 50%, and analysts are betting on the middle of the range.

But subscriber numbers are likely to attract the most comment, especially in comparison with those of Vodacom, which were released earlier this week.

MTN has historically lagged behind Vodacom in terms of customer numbers, although recently the group has been showing faster growth than that of Vodacom.

In the December quarter, Vodacom grew its total customer base to 14.4 million - a 7.1% increase on the September quarter. In the same quarter, MTN grew its base by 21.1% to 13.4 million.

Vodacom on Monday said it had a total of 15.5 million customers at the end of March - representing growth of 38% year on year. Investors are keen to see how MTN`s growth rates compare.

An analyst says he believes the total subscriber gap is likely to narrow even further - if not now, than certainly in the near future, particularly as MTN grows its base in Nigeria, a massive market where Vodacom does not operate, although it is planning, in conjunction with Virgin, to bid for a controlling stake in existing cellular operator VMobile.

The MTN share was trading at 4 673c on the JSE this morning, down 7c on yesterday`s close.