Despite the enthusiasm for Linux, Microsoft will continue its dominance in the client operating environment (COE) market for the foreseeable future, says the International Data Corporation (IDC), with NT Workstation growth last year growing more than the overall market`s increase.
According to IDC, NT Workstation revenue grew by $1.6 billion while the overall market grew by only $1.53 billion due to product declines that offset Microsoft`s growth.
"Undoubtedly, there is a lot of excitement surrounding Linux, but so far this technology has failed to ignite a broad revolution against the Microsoft dominated desktop world," says Al Gillen, research manager for IDC`s System Software research. "Revenues from sales of Linux remain a single droplet compared with the sea of cash that the Windows COE products generate."
IDC models show that Windows products generated approximately 87% of revenues in the COE market during 1999. By 2004, NT Workstation and Windows 2000 Professional will account for just shy of 85% of all COE revenues, while residual Windows 9x product sales will account for much of the remainder, leaving little room for competitive products.
IDC believes Linux will continue to make inroads into the market, but not enough to alter the market segmentation significantly. COE revenues generated from Linux and other open source environments will increase from $36.9 million in 1999 to $93.3 million in 2004.
IDC also reports the Macintosh operating system, Mac OS, is rebounding, with a 27% jump in shipments during 1999. "Apple is regaining the confidence of traditional users in the graphic arts and design industries," says Gillen. "The iMac family helped stop the company`s years of declining to flat growth in 1999, but Apple probably won`t be able to make up all the ground it lost in the past decade."
Linux, by comparison to Windows and the Mac OS, is a free operating system that can be legally copied without copyright infringement. Revenues are generated from the surrounding areas of services and support rather than from the product itself.
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