While SA ranks 60th out of 66 countries surveyed by Oxford University in terms of broadband penetration, the coming of approximately 10 to 12 new undersea cables to Africa within the next three years is very good news.
This is the view of Sadiq Malik, business development director, BCT Global, who is chairing the ITWeb Broadband conference being held in Johannesburg this week.
Andre Wills, MD of Africa Analysis, said: “There are dynamic changes happening in the broadband market, and contrary to belief, there is a good level of competition in the market and it is not that monopolised.
“The bottom and top of Africa is where the highest broadband penetration is. The lowest penetration lies in the middle of the continent, despite the many broadband technologies available and deployed, such as DSL and WiMax.”
He noted that although DSL and WiMax are deployed, they are very localised across the continent, and confined to big cities.
However, he added that mobile broadband, 3G and 3.5G adoption is high, and predicts it will grow by leaps to become the favoured technology to bridge the next digital divide.
“Fixed broadband is struggling to do what mobile is doing,” Wills said. “There is a natural migration path for mobile, which fixed broadband does not have.”
Nuts and bolts
Wills referred to mobile broadband access through cellphones, and believes the biggest growth will be due to the increase in handset sales and not through 3G cards or dongles. “People are naturally replacing their phones and will start getting 3G-capable phones,” he explained.
Citing figures by Kenyan operator Safaricom, Wills noted that in terms of mobile penetration, growth in 3G usage was over 89% during a six-month period. He added that bolt-on data packages sales for Safaricom had also grown by 220%, as customers aren't required to take out a new contract. “This is a lesson for operators. Bolt-on packages are the way to go,” he said.
In terms of infrastructure, Will argued that undersea cables, like Seacom, are good, but regional network connection infrastructure - from landing stations to the rest of countries and the continent, is still lacking.
This is where he believes the biggest opportunities are and where mobile infrastructure will beat fixed line infrastructure in the future.
“Mobile is strong in Africa and pushing 3G into the continent. Mobile penetration is 10 times bigger than fixed penetration and will quickly win over fixed broadband,” he concluded.
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