Greenfield opportunities for African and Middle-East mobile operators have dried up, despite the fact that the African mobile subscriber numbers will grow to over 425 million by 2012, says BMI-TechKnowledge senior analyst Richard Hurst.
Hurst was speaking at the launch of the 15th edition of the BMI-T "Communications Technologies Handbook".
The 560-page handbook looks at the growth of communications markets in Africa and the Middle East, as well as outlining growth trends in selected countries. This is the first time the report includes the Middle East region in its projections.
Hurst said most countries have already awarded their full quota of communication licences, leaving operators to look for growth through buying a stake in existing operations.
In the Middle East, operators can also look at states that have smaller populations, but high annual revenue per user. However, a smaller population also reduces the value proposition, he stated.
Mobile providers have the option of looking at African countries such as Sudan or Libya, or to try to get a foothold in Asian markets, Hurst added.
Nigeria flies
The African mobile subscriber base is expected to be roughly 229 million by the end of 2007, the report says, and will see a compound annual growth of 15%, to over 425 million, by the end of 2012.
SA will have the highest penetration, at 87%, by the end of 2007, with the North African region coming second, at 60% penetration levels. "Mobile penetration in other African states remains relatively low, but will rise to between 30% and 40% by 2012."
Hurst adds that the Nigerian market will "take off like a rocket", reaching 47 million subscribers by the end of 2007, and growing to 93 million subscribers by the end of 2012.
"Growth in Nigeria is driven by basic voice services, with operators responding via ongoing network roll-outs," he explained. Nigeria has five mobile operators, as well as two fixed-line operators, and one independent long-distance network operator.
The report says cumulative fixed-line investment in Nigeria is expected to reach $537 million by the end of the year. MTN, which has mobile operations in Nigeria, recently announced plans to invest $2 billion in fibre optic infrastructure in the country.
Pakistan dominates
The report says the total Middle East mobile market will reach 416 million mobile subscribers by 2012, growing at a compound rate of 15% a year. Iran will also see a strong growth, from 17 million subscribers by the end of 2007 to 54 million by 2012.
"Pakistan will dominate, with a 22% [compound annual] growth, going from 62 million mobile subscribers in 2007 to 166 million by 2012."
Hurst adds that cumulative capex in the Middle East will reach $30 billion by the end of 2007, growing to over $98 billion by 2012. Pakistan and Turkey will account for the lion`s share of the investment, with around $44 billion and $21 billion, respectively, by 2012.
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