Fixed-mobile convergence in SA may be "closer than it seems", says Sadiq Malik, operations director at BCT Global; and he is not alone in making such a prediction.
This new optimism follows successful demonstrations of MobileVOIP at last week`s 3GSM Congress in Barcelona, Spain.
MobileVOIP allows users to move across networks without service interruption by intercepting or redirecting Internet Protocol (IP) data.
"It provides an always-on solution to streaming IP traffic to wireless devices, sidestepping the problem of data interruptions while the user is in transit," explains Malik.
He expects that in SA, cellular and fixed-line operators, along with Internet service providers and multimedia providers, will drive adoption of MobileVOIP.
"Cellular operators in SA will have the edge since they already own the largest subscriber base, around 30 million users, and they control the national GSM/3G access network."
The possibilities
Mike Brierley, CEO of MTN Network Solutions, who will speak at the VOIP World Africa summit in May, believes reliable MobileVOIP services could be possible by mid-2007.
"WiMax 802.16e will be the first real GSM alternative, but this specification is not yet ratified and roll-outs have yet to start."
Though the first dual phones are already available, Brierley points out they are all WiFi-based, and as South African hotspots are limited, he expects these to have limited appeal.
He adds that it is feasible to make a VOIP call on 3G, but notes there are "latency issues", and as the cost would be a fraction of current cell rates, he does not expect mobile operators to support 3G VOIP.
Another possibility, he says, is if Telkom introduces a BT Blue phone equivalent on ADSL, which may cause a significant shift to consumer VOIP, but with limited mobility around the home. This would not be before mid-2007, he adds.
30m versus 5m
Network operators are under increasing pressure to provide bundled services including fixed and mobile voice, and broadband Internet to augment declining voice revenue per unit, Mailk states.
He points to the fact that in SA there are six times more mobile subscribers than fixed-line subscribers: "We have 30 million cellular subscribers versus five million on fixed-line."
Mailk is confident wireless VOIP will hit SA when cellular operators` revenue starts declining, which he believes is already happening. Wireless VOIP will arrive when the fixed-line operators Telkom and the second national operator, along with wireless broadband operators like Sentech and WBS, realise more money can be made from wireless VOIP than fixed-line VOIP, he says.
Considerable excitement
"The MobileVOIP demonstrations in Barcelona caused considerable excitement in the telecoms operator community," he notes.
He adds that MobileVOIP and its technology enablers, such as dual-mode smart phones with roaming and convergence servers, is the future revenue generator for any telecoms operator that wants to profit from cellular-IP convergence.
BCT Global, along with other partners at MobileIGNITE (an association of service providers and vendors collaborating to accelerate fixed-mobile convergence), will host a MobileVOIP live demo at the 3GSM Congress in Cape Town on 19 and 20 October.
"Pyramid research estimates show that mobile voice traffic and revenue will slow down globally, with total industry revenue maxing-out at about $700 billion by 2009," he says.
Salik explains that the reasons for the "maxing-out" lie in the legalisation of VOIP and the availability of technology that supports MobileVOIP.
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