With Windows 8 and the first Surface tablets due to make their debut on 26 October, an IDC analyst estimates Microsoft will build just over three million Surface tablets in 2012.
IDC analyst Bob O'Donnell told CNET he suspects Microsoft will not be able to sell all of the tablets it is planning to make through the Microsoft store alone, and will need to sell them through traditional retail outlets for a wider distribution channel.
Pricing of the Surface tablets is still unconfirmed, with Microsoft saying only: "Suggested retail pricing will be announced closer to availability and is expected to be competitive with a comparable ARM tablet or Intel Ultrabook-class PC.”
O'Donnell expects Surface tablets to go on sale for about $599 outright, or $199 for a two-year subscription bundled with some other services.
By way of comparison, Apple sold three million iPads in the first quarter of the product's launch in 2010. Apple has since sold over 84 million iPads to date, with a record 17 million units sold in the company's third quarter this year (which ended in July).
IDC says total worldwide tablet shipments for the second quarter of 2012 are estimated at 25 million units (up from the 18.7 million in Q1). “That represents a quarter-over-quarter increase of 33.6% and a robust year-over-year growth rate of 66.2%, up from 15 million units in the second quarter of 2011.”
Microsoft unveiled the Surface tablet in June, marking a major push by the company to integrate its own hardware and software in a product - a strategy that has been a key component of Apple's success.
O'Donnell says global competition will heat up in the second half of this year: "In addition to major new products from Amazon and quite likely Apple, we can also expect an influx of Microsoft Windows 8 and Windows RT-based tablets starting in late October.
“If anything, there's a real risk that people will have too many options from which to choose this holiday season. Consumers baffled by the differences between Amazon and Google versions of Android, or Windows 8 and Windows RT, may well default to market leader Apple. Or they may simply choose to remain on the sideline for another cycle."
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